TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067332
Played Sep 3Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121011991110121012
Oleksii Nadporozhskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleksii Nadporozhskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Oleksii Nadporozhskyi below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 106 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Oleksii Nadporozhskyi at 54.0%
106 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 1–1 Oleksii Nadporozhskyi Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Nadporozhskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1562 vs Nadporozhskyi 1376
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 186 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 60% vs Nadporozhskyi 40%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 50% vs Nadporozhskyi 30%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk +1 · Nadporozhskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Nadporozhskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadporozhskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 2.00 / Nadporozhskyi 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Nadporozhskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13067332
Tiutiunnyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Nadporozhskyi1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk1wins
AwayNadporozhskyi1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykNadporozhskyiT − NBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match31.532.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykNadporozhskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 369 vs 45 / 14247.2%31.7%174 / 369 vs 45 / 142Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NadporozhskyiTiutiunnyk 2.00/Nadporozhskyi 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Nadporozhskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nadporozhskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 6 · 16:40M. Tiutiunnyk—78100O. Nadporozhskyi—1111123
WApr 9 · 13:10M. Tiutiunnyk—11511113O. Nadporozhskyi—111991
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
O. Nadporozhskyi10
WSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091LSep 3 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn2.2081111113O. Nadporozhskyi1.61116221WSep 3 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.6111951282O. Nadporozhskyi2.204111110113LSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113WAug 6 · 16:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.911111123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8078100LAug 6 · 15:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.007990M. Deineha1.731111113LAug 6 · 13:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.8312911492Y. Holoborodko1.831011411113WAug 6 · 12:10O. Nadporozhskyi1.6712911113Y. Kovshun2.101011591LAug 6 · 10:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.67711241R. Sopivnyk2.1011811113LApr 9 · 17:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.2587110A. Derevianko1.571111133
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