TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067040
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171151012116––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 64.4% is still 64.4%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
64.4%
64.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 73 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 64.4%
73 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 23–25 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Oleksandr Zhyrnov has won 23 of their 48 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Zhyrnov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-25 in 48
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 48, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1699 vs Tiutiunnyk 1573
Zhyrnov
Correct
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 80% vs Tiutiunnyk 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov -1 · Tiutiunnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tiutiunnyk form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.53 / Tiutiunnyk 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13067040
Zhyrnov1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite62% won 113 of 181
Up 2–0, closes it93% 56 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it84% 84 of 100
Tiutiunnyk2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back20% 10 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov7wins
AwayTiutiunnyk3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov87.5%7 of 8
AwayTiutiunnykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov8Tiutiunnyk2n = 10Zhyrnov took 8 of 10
S2Zhyrnov5Tiutiunnyk5n = 10split evenly
S3Zhyrnov6Tiutiunnyk4n = 10Zhyrnov took 6 of 10
S4Zhyrnov3Tiutiunnyk1n = 4Zhyrnov took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovTiutiunnykZ − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match36.131.2+4.9per matchSweeps42+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime376 / 759 vs 176 / 37249.5%47.3%376 / 759 vs 176 / 372Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.53/Tiutiunnyk 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.4%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zhyrnov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—3870
WAug 1 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—1111113M. Tiutiunnyk—7580
WJul 22 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov—1211113M. Tiutiunnyk—10560
WJul 19 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov—11911113M. Tiutiunnyk—911871
WJul 16 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—119115113M. Tiutiunnyk—61181192
WJul 2 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov—1911113M. Tiutiunnyk—17390
LJun 25 · 16:40O. Zhyrnov—9790M. Tiutiunnyk—1111113
LJun 20 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—10550M. Tiutiunnyk—1211113
WJun 13 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov—11119113M. Tiutiunnyk—751161
LJun 7 · 08:00O. Zhyrnov—114811102M. Tiutiunnyk—811116123
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
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