TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061148
Played Sep 2Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1141012711118611
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 91 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 54.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 1–1 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:55What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1617 vs Tiutiunnyk 1541
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Tiutiunnyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Tiutiunnyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Tiutiunnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.73 / Tiutiunnyk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Bondarenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13061148
Bondarenko1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Tiutiunnyk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog36% won 30 of 84
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeBondarenko1wins
AwayTiutiunnyk1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricBondarenkoTiutiunnykB − TBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.032.5+6.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 89 vs 171 / 36452.8%47%47 / 89 vs 171 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.73/Tiutiunnyk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WFeb 15 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko—1211113M. Tiutiunnyk—10930
LOct 5 · 09:30Y. Bondarenko—11491192M. Tiutiunnyk—511115113
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
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