TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015040
Played Aug 26Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111161012116611
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 89 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 66.5%
89 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 4–2 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Bondarenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Bondarenko
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1623 vs Habrelyan 1430
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 193 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Habrelyan 0%
Bondarenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Habrelyan 20%
Bondarenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +1 · Habrelyan -5
Habrelyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.44 / Habrelyan 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Bondarenko)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015040
Bondarenko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 13 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Habrelyan2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 23 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeBondarenko4wins
AwayHabrelyan2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderBondarenko leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%3 of 3
AwayHabrelyan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Habrelyan3n = 6split evenly
S2Bondarenko5Habrelyan1n = 6Bondarenko took 5 of 6
S3Bondarenko4Habrelyan2n = 6Bondarenko took 4 of 6
S4Bondarenko2Habrelyan3n = 5Habrelyan took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanB − HBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match39.735.8+3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime53 / 96 vs 186 / 40655.2%45.8%53 / 96 vs 186 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.44/Habrelyan 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 16 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko—91111552D. Habrelyan—115811113
WJun 28 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—11117113D. Habrelyan—551181
LFeb 15 · 10:30Y. Bondarenko—1111851D. Habrelyan—13811113
WFeb 1 · 11:30Y. Bondarenko—1111113D. Habrelyan—5470
WAug 17 · 10:10Y. Bondarenko—71113123D. Habrelyan—11711101
WAug 17 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko—119114113D. Habrelyan—61171172
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113
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