TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061129
Played Sep 2Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210119911115
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 97 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 60.7%
97 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 4–3 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:42What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1596 vs Habrelyan 1549
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 20% vs Habrelyan 100%
Habrelyan
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 30% vs Habrelyan 80%
Habrelyan
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -3 · Habrelyan +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 1.50 / Habrelyan 2.50
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Bondarenko)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13061129
Bondarenko1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 14 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Habrelyan2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 26 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBondarenko4wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderBondarenko leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenko100%3 of 3
AwayHabrelyan75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko3Habrelyan4n = 7Habrelyan took 4 of 7
S2Bondarenko6Habrelyan1n = 7Bondarenko took 6 of 7
S3Bondarenko4Habrelyan3n = 7Bondarenko took 4 of 7
S4Bondarenko3Habrelyan3n = 6split evenly
S5Bondarenko1Habrelyan2n = 3Habrelyan took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanB − HBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.137.3+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 91 vs 191 / 40651.7%47%47 / 91 vs 191 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoBondarenko 1.50/Habrelyan 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko—511101162D. Habrelyan—116126113
LAug 16 · 05:00Y. Bondarenko—91111552D. Habrelyan—115811113
WJun 28 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—11117113D. Habrelyan—551181
LFeb 15 · 10:30Y. Bondarenko—1111851D. Habrelyan—13811113
WFeb 1 · 11:30Y. Bondarenko—1111113D. Habrelyan—5470
WAug 17 · 10:10Y. Bondarenko—71113123D. Habrelyan—11711101
WAug 17 · 09:00Y. Bondarenko—119114113D. Habrelyan—61171172
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113
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