TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015234
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711711911––––
Yurii Bondarenko
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Yurii Bondarenko below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 3–3 Yurii Bondarenko Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:50What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1567 vs Bondarenko 1611
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 40% vs Bondarenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 50% vs Bondarenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +1 · Bondarenko -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zhyrnov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.83 / Bondarenko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015234
Zhyrnov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Bondarenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeZhyrnov3wins
AwayBondarenko3wins
3 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov75%3 of 4
AwayBondarenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov4Bondarenko2n = 6Zhyrnov took 4 of 6
S2Zhyrnov3Bondarenko3n = 6split evenly
S3Zhyrnov3Bondarenko3n = 6split evenly
S4Zhyrnov3Bondarenko2n = 5Zhyrnov took 3 of 5
S5Zhyrnov1Bondarenko2n = 3Bondarenko took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricZhyrnovBondarenkoZ − BBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match40.239.7+0.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 747 vs 52 / 9549.4%54.7%369 / 747 vs 52 / 95Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.83/Bondarenko 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 16 · 07:00O. Zhyrnov—58111192Y. Bondarenko—111189113
WJun 28 · 05:00O. Zhyrnov—114911113Y. Bondarenko—71111672
WMay 24 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov—1111113Y. Bondarenko—3870
LSep 21 · 07:00O. Zhyrnov—125461Y. Bondarenko—101111113
WAug 24 · 07:00O. Zhyrnov—11139113Y. Bondarenko—9111161
LAug 17 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov—81111892Y. Bondarenko—116911113
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
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