TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015187
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleg Varlamov
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
116711911611––
Yurii Bondarenko
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:48 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeYurii Bondarenko to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleg Varlamov above · Yurii Bondarenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 72 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yurii Bondarenko at 57.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Oleg Varlamov 1–3 Yurii Bondarenko Oleg Varlamov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Bondarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Bondarenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varlamov 1589 vs Bondarenko 1607
Bondarenko
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varlamov 60% vs Bondarenko 40%
Varlamov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varlamov 50% vs Bondarenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varlamov -1 · Bondarenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Bondarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Bondarenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarlamov 2.50 / Bondarenko 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Bondarenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015187
Varlamov2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog48% won 74 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back31% 25 of 82
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 44
Bondarenko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 13 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 9 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it79% 11 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeVarlamov1wins
AwayBondarenko3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderBondarenko leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varlamov2Bondarenko2n = 4split evenly
S2Varlamov1Bondarenko3n = 4Bondarenko took 3 of 4
S3Varlamov4Bondarenko0n = 4Varlamov took 4 of 4
S4Varlamov1Bondarenko3n = 4Bondarenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricVarlamovBondarenkoV − BBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.240.0−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarlamovBondarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime261 / 546 vs 53 / 9747.8%54.6%261 / 546 vs 53 / 97Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BondarenkoVarlamov 2.50/Bondarenko 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Bondarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 12 · 07:00O. Varlamov—11111782Y. Bondarenko—113411113
WJul 5 · 07:00O. Varlamov—11411113Y. Bondarenko—611661
LFeb 1 · 08:30O. Varlamov—11311972Y. Bondarenko—911711113
LOct 5 · 05:00O. Varlamov—101011101Y. Bondarenko—12126123
O. Varlamov10
WSep 6 · 11:30R. Sopivnyk1.803740O. Varlamov1.91111193LSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143LSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 17:10O. Varlamov2.0081111113R. Sopivnyk1.73119361LSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560WSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860LSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
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