TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060853
Played Sep 2Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117118117––––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:03 and never touched — 65.2% is still 65.2%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
65.2%
65.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 55 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 65.2%
55 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 1–8 Yevhenii Holoborodko Yurii Bondarenko has won 1 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Holoborodko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-8 in 9
Holoborodko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1605 vs Holoborodko 1638
Holoborodko
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 40% vs Holoborodko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 40% vs Holoborodko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko +1 · Holoborodko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Holoborodko) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 2.50 / Holoborodko 1.50
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Holoborodko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060853
Bondarenko2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog40% won 6 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Holoborodko1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 129 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it92% 54 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it70% 80 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBondarenko1wins
AwayHoloborodko8wins
3 of 9 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 8–1, and 3 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHoloborodko100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko2Holoborodko7n = 9Holoborodko took 7 of 9
S2Bondarenko1Holoborodko8n = 9Holoborodko took 8 of 9
S3Bondarenko3Holoborodko6n = 9Holoborodko took 6 of 9
S4Bondarenko3Holoborodko3n = 6split evenly
S5Bondarenko1Holoborodko2n = 3Holoborodko took 2 of 3
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoB − HBasisWins18−7in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match34.841.1−6.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime48 / 92 vs 312 / 58952.2%53%48 / 92 vs 312 / 589Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoBondarenko 2.50/Holoborodko 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Bondarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Bondarenko—77111172Y. Holoborodko—111178113
LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko—10101181Y. Holoborodko—12128113
LAug 16 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—89111382Y. Holoborodko—1111611113
LAug 9 · 08:00Y. Bondarenko—711581Y. Holoborodko—11311113
WJul 12 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—113711113Y. Holoborodko—71111992
LJun 28 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko—8890Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LFeb 22 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko—1111471Y. Holoborodko—71311113
LFeb 15 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko—8970Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LFeb 1 · 05:30Y. Bondarenko—14750Y. Holoborodko—1611113
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko2.2010101181Y. Holoborodko1.6112128113
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