TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015111
Played Aug 26Finished
Yurii Bondarenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10121012118811––
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Holoborodko to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYurii Bondarenko above · Yevhenii Holoborodko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 82 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Yevhenii Holoborodko at 60.5%
82 points played in total.
H2H Yurii Bondarenko 1–6 Yevhenii Holoborodko Yurii Bondarenko has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holoborodko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Holoborodko
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bondarenko 1624 vs Holoborodko 1585
Bondarenko
Wrong
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bondarenko 60% vs Holoborodko 80%
Holoborodko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bondarenko 50% vs Holoborodko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bondarenko -1 · Holoborodko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holoborodko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holoborodko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBondarenko 2.20 / Holoborodko 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holoborodko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13015111
Bondarenko2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 5 of 12
Down 0–1, comes back13% 1 of 8
Holoborodko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 127 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it70% 77 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeBondarenko1wins
AwayHoloborodko6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderHoloborodko leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBondarenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayHoloborodko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bondarenko2Holoborodko5n = 7Holoborodko took 5 of 7
S2Bondarenko1Holoborodko6n = 7Holoborodko took 6 of 7
S3Bondarenko1Holoborodko6n = 7Holoborodko took 6 of 7
S4Bondarenko2Holoborodko2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoB − HBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match33.039.9−6.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBondarenkoHoloborodkoBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 94 vs 294 / 56155.3%52.4%52 / 94 vs 294 / 561Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HoloborodkoBondarenko 2.20/Holoborodko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Holoborodko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holoborodko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 16 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—89111382Y. Holoborodko—1111611113
LAug 9 · 08:00Y. Bondarenko—711581Y. Holoborodko—11311113
WJul 12 · 08:30Y. Bondarenko—113711113Y. Holoborodko—71111992
LJun 28 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko—8890Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LFeb 22 · 07:00Y. Bondarenko—1111471Y. Holoborodko—71311113
LFeb 15 · 06:00Y. Bondarenko—8970Y. Holoborodko—1111113
LFeb 1 · 05:30Y. Bondarenko—14750Y. Holoborodko—1611113
Y. Bondarenko10
WSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113WSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152LSep 2 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.67451191O. Zhyrnov2.1011119113LSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113LAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172WAug 26 · 14:10O. Varlamov2.50117961Y. Bondarenko1.5061111113LAug 26 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.44511101162D. Habrelyan2.63116126113WAug 26 · 12:10O. Zhyrnov1.837790Y. Bondarenko1.831111113LAug 23 · 10:30O. Varlamov2.0051111113Y. Bondarenko1.73118451
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851LSep 2 · 15:40Y. Bondarenko2.501111113Y. Holoborodko1.507870WAug 26 · 15:59Y. Holoborodko1.50111178113Y. Bondarenko2.5077111172
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