TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060762
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleksandr Zhyrnov
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11351131114121113
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:42 and never touched — 66.9% is still 66.9%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Zhyrnov to win
66.9%
66.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleksandr Zhyrnov above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 94 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Oleksandr Zhyrnov at 66.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Zhyrnov 44–22 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 22 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:42What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zhyrnov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
44-22 in 66
Zhyrnov
Wrong
gap of 22 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zhyrnov 1719 vs Habrelyan 1551
Zhyrnov
Wrong
both rated, 168 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zhyrnov 100% vs Habrelyan 80%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zhyrnov 90% vs Habrelyan 70%
Zhyrnov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zhyrnov +5 · Habrelyan +1
Zhyrnov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Zhyrnov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZhyrnov 1.44 / Habrelyan 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Zhyrnov)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13060762
Zhyrnov1.44
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 110 of 177
Up 2–0, closes it93% 54 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it84% 81 of 96
Habrelyan2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 26 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZhyrnov7wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderZhyrnov leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZhyrnov85.7%6 of 7
AwayHabrelyan66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zhyrnov7Habrelyan3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S2Zhyrnov7Habrelyan3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S3Zhyrnov7Habrelyan3n = 10Zhyrnov took 7 of 10
S4Zhyrnov4Habrelyan2n = 6Zhyrnov took 4 of 6
S5Zhyrnov1Habrelyan2n = 3Habrelyan took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZhyrnovHabrelyanZ − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.533.8+7.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZhyrnovHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime374 / 755 vs 192 / 40849.5%47.1%374 / 755 vs 192 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZhyrnovZhyrnov 1.44/Habrelyan 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.9%
Zhyrnov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 16:29O. Zhyrnov—1111133D. Habrelyan—53110
WAug 26 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov—111012113D. Habrelyan—9121091
WAug 16 · 08:00O. Zhyrnov—1151011113D. Habrelyan—71112562
LJul 29 · 14:40O. Zhyrnov—8111291D. Habrelyan—11614113
WJul 11 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—1111113D. Habrelyan—5490
LJul 8 · 16:10O. Zhyrnov—1191013112D. Habrelyan—8111211133
WJun 28 · 10:00O. Zhyrnov—111114113D. Habrelyan—1351291
WJun 14 · 08:00O. Zhyrnov—1111113D. Habrelyan—6980
LJun 13 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov—311119142D. Habrelyan—119611163
WMay 31 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov—1111113D. Habrelyan—1160
O. Zhyrnov10
WSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101WSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 07:30O. Zhyrnov1.5011411113R. Sopivnyk2.50511631LSep 6 · 06:00O. Zhyrnov1.8079120O. Varlamov1.911111143WSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960WSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:40O. Zhyrnov1.44118961R. Sopivnyk2.6391111113WSep 5 · 11:40O. Varlamov1.8351090O. Zhyrnov1.83111292
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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