TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067136
Played Sep 3Finished
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012117118511116
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tiutiunnyk above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 92 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 54.9%
92 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tiutiunnyk 36–20 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 20 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:27What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
36-20 in 56
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
gap of 16 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tiutiunnyk 1565 vs Habrelyan 1569
Habrelyan
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tiutiunnyk 60% vs Habrelyan 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tiutiunnyk 60% vs Habrelyan 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tiutiunnyk -1 · Habrelyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTiutiunnyk 1.57 / Habrelyan 2.25
Signal prob.57% / 44%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13067136
Tiutiunnyk1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite63% won 59 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it81% 38 of 47
Habrelyan2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTiutiunnyk7wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderTiutiunnyk leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTiutiunnyk80%4 of 5
AwayHabrelyan40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tiutiunnyk5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S2Tiutiunnyk7Habrelyan3n = 10Tiutiunnyk took 7 of 10
S3Tiutiunnyk4Habrelyan6n = 10Habrelyan took 6 of 10
S4Tiutiunnyk7Habrelyan1n = 8Tiutiunnyk took 7 of 8
S5Tiutiunnyk3Habrelyan2n = 5Tiutiunnyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTiutiunnykHabrelyanT − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.537.4+6.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTiutiunnykHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 373 vs 195 / 41347.2%47.2%176 / 373 vs 195 / 413Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykTiutiunnyk 1.57/Habrelyan 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.5%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk—111061182D. Habrelyan—812115113
LJul 1 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—711811162D. Habrelyan—118118183
WJun 18 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk—691111113D. Habrelyan—11116872
WJun 13 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk—12139113D. Habrelyan—10111121
WMar 29 · 10:30M. Tiutiunnyk—14118113D. Habrelyan—1271141
WMar 28 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk—591113113D. Habrelyan—111131182
LFeb 15 · 07:30M. Tiutiunnyk—813691D. Habrelyan—111111113
WFeb 14 · 18:10M. Tiutiunnyk—1311113D. Habrelyan—11930
WFeb 8 · 06:00M. Tiutiunnyk—1111123D. Habrelyan—17100
WFeb 7 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk—611611113D. Habrelyan—11211432
M. Tiutiunnyk10
LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
D. Habrelyan10
WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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