TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067339
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleksii Nadporozhskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111161113811––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Nadporozhskyi above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Nadporozhskyi 0–1 Daniil Habrelyan Oleksii Nadporozhskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nadporozhskyi 1386 vs Habrelyan 1567
Habrelyan
Correct
both rated, 181 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadporozhskyi 60% vs Habrelyan 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadporozhskyi 40% vs Habrelyan 80%
Habrelyan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadporozhskyi +2 · Habrelyan -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadporozhskyi 1.83 / Habrelyan 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Habrelyan)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13067339
Nadporozhskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Habrelyan1.83
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNadporozhskyi0wins
AwayHabrelyan1wins
Habrelyan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNadporozhskyiHabrelyanN − HBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match36.041.0−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadporozhskyiHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime46 / 144 vs 194 / 41131.9%47.2%46 / 144 vs 194 / 411Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanNadporozhskyi 1.83/Habrelyan 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi—6111181D. Habrelyan—11613113
O. Nadporozhskyi10
WSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091LSep 3 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn2.2081111113O. Nadporozhskyi1.61116221WSep 3 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.6111951282O. Nadporozhskyi2.204111110113WSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WAug 6 · 16:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.911111123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8078100LAug 6 · 15:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.007990M. Deineha1.731111113LAug 6 · 13:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.8312911492Y. Holoborodko1.831011411113WAug 6 · 12:10O. Nadporozhskyi1.6712911113Y. Kovshun2.101011591LAug 6 · 10:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.67711241R. Sopivnyk2.1011811113LApr 9 · 17:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.2587110A. Derevianko1.571111133
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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