TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12367259
Played Aug 6Finished
Oleksii Nadporozhskyi
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171181210––––
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeOleksii Nadporozhskyi to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksii Nadporozhskyi above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 — our read held Oleksii Nadporozhskyi at 57.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Oleksii Nadporozhskyi 0–1 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Oleksii Nadporozhskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side0 for · 3 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Nadporozhskyi 1351 vs Tiutiunnyk 1542
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
both rated, 191 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Nadporozhskyi 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Nadporozhskyi 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Nadporozhskyi -2 · Tiutiunnyk +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadporozhskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNadporozhskyi 1.91 / Tiutiunnyk 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #12367259
Nadporozhskyi1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Tiutiunnyk1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 61 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it84% 43 of 51
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeNadporozhskyi0wins
AwayTiutiunnyk1wins
Tiutiunnyk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricNadporozhskyiTiutiunnykN − TBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match30.038.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNadporozhskyiTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 186 vs 184 / 38231.2%48.2%58 / 186 vs 184 / 382Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykNadporozhskyi 1.91/Tiutiunnyk 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Nadporozhskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LApr 9 · 13:10O. Nadporozhskyi—111991M. Tiutiunnyk—11511113
O. Nadporozhskyi10
WSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091LSep 3 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn2.2081111113O. Nadporozhskyi1.61116221WSep 3 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.6111951282O. Nadporozhskyi2.204111110113LSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113WSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123LAug 6 · 15:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.007990M. Deineha1.731111113LAug 6 · 13:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.8312911492Y. Holoborodko1.831011411113WAug 6 · 12:10O. Nadporozhskyi1.6712911113Y. Kovshun2.101011591LAug 6 · 10:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.67711241R. Sopivnyk2.1011811113LApr 9 · 17:10O. Nadporozhskyi2.2587110A. Derevianko1.571111133
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 12:10O. Karpenko2.63111611692M. Tiutiunnyk1.445141311113WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113
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