TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061159
Played Sep 2Finished
Oleh Karpenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11516141113611911
Maksym Tiutiunnyk
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:55 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tiutiunnyk to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Karpenko above · Maksym Tiutiunnyk below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 107 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Tiutiunnyk at 60.8%
107 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Karpenko 1–0 Maksym Tiutiunnyk Maksym Tiutiunnyk has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:55What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Karpenko 1665 vs Tiutiunnyk 1554
Karpenko
Wrong
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karpenko 20% vs Tiutiunnyk 60%
Tiutiunnyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karpenko 60% vs Tiutiunnyk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karpenko -3 · Tiutiunnyk +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Tiutiunnyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karpenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarpenko 2.63 / Tiutiunnyk 1.44
Signal prob.36% / 65%
Edge (Tiutiunnyk)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13061159
Karpenko2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 85 of 176
Down 0–1, comes back31% 28 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back22% 13 of 59
Tiutiunnyk1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 58 of 92
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it83% 38 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeKarpenko1wins
AwayTiutiunnyk0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderKarpenko leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricKarpenkoTiutiunnykK − TBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match59.053.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarpenkoTiutiunnykBasisWin rate · lifetime353 / 672 vs 172 / 36552.5%47.1%353 / 672 vs 172 / 365Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TiutiunnykKarpenko 2.63/Tiutiunnyk 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Tiutiunnyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tiutiunnyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 1 · 11:40O. Karpenko—1215138113M. Tiutiunnyk—1413111142
O. Karpenko10
WSep 4 · 11:00Y. Kovshun1.8051181182O. Karpenko1.91117116113LSep 4 · 10:00A. Troyan1.806121111113O. Karpenko1.9111146892WSep 4 · 08:30A. Kotiash2.00101050O. Karpenko1.731212113LSep 4 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.441311123O. Karpenko2.63118100WSep 4 · 04:30Y. Volkov1.3691211872O. Karpenko3.001110211113LSep 2 · 16:40O. Karpenko2.63123661Y. Bondarenko1.44101111113LSep 2 · 15:10O. Karpenko2.639690O. Zhyrnov1.441111113LSep 2 · 13:40O. Karpenko3.25128491Y. Holoborodko1.33101111113LSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113LSep 1 · 17:40O. Karpenko2.5051050Y. Holoborodko1.501112113
M. Tiutiunnyk10
WSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162LSep 3 · 15:10O. Zhyrnov1.53111110113M. Tiutiunnyk2.38751261WSep 3 · 14:10M. Tiutiunnyk2.10671111113Y. Holoborodko1.6711116562WSep 3 · 13:10O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114372M. Tiutiunnyk2.20471111113LSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WSep 2 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko1.731169101M. Tiutiunnyk2.0091111123LSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:10O. Zhyrnov1.611111113M. Tiutiunnyk2.203870WSep 2 · 11:10Y. Bondarenko1.73111071162M. Tiutiunnyk2.00412118113WSep 1 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.731511711133R. Sopivnyk2.00176116112
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.