TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067208
Played Sep 3Finished
Oleh Kuzyshyn
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171311115––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 66.7% is still 66.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Kuzyshyn to win
66.7%
66.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Kuzyshyn above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 58 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Oleh Kuzyshyn at 66.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Kuzyshyn 15–9 Daniil Habrelyan Daniil Habrelyan has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kuzyshyn
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Kuzyshyn
Correct
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzyshyn 1678 vs Habrelyan 1567
Kuzyshyn
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzyshyn 80% vs Habrelyan 60%
Kuzyshyn
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzyshyn 70% vs Habrelyan 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzyshyn -1 · Habrelyan +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Kuzyshyn) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzyshyn 1.40 / Habrelyan 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Kuzyshyn)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13067208
Kuzyshyn1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite64% won 63 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it83% 47 of 57
Habrelyan2.75
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog37% won 28 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back26% 11 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzyshyn7wins
AwayHabrelyan3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKuzyshyn leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzyshyn75%6 of 8
AwayHabrelyann = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzyshyn8Habrelyan2n = 10Kuzyshyn took 8 of 10
S2Kuzyshyn7Habrelyan3n = 10Kuzyshyn took 7 of 10
S3Kuzyshyn3Habrelyan7n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S4Kuzyshyn4Habrelyan3n = 7Kuzyshyn took 4 of 7
S5Kuzyshyn2Habrelyan1n = 3Kuzyshyn took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzyshynHabrelyanK − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match38.434.5+3.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzyshynHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 431 vs 194 / 41152.4%47.2%226 / 431 vs 194 / 411Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzyshynKuzyshyn 1.40/Habrelyan 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Kuzyshyn · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kuzyshyn won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn—1111113D. Habrelyan—9640
WAug 12 · 11:10O. Kuzyshyn—11118113D. Habrelyan—571181
WMay 2 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn—1211113D. Habrelyan—10650
WMar 29 · 04:30O. Kuzyshyn—118113113D. Habrelyan—41141152
WMar 28 · 14:10O. Kuzyshyn—811611113D. Habrelyan—11811962
WFeb 15 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn—11117113D. Habrelyan—991171
WFeb 14 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn—1111993D. Habrelyan—961171
LFeb 8 · 11:30O. Kuzyshyn—119851D. Habrelyan—91111113
LFeb 7 · 17:40O. Kuzyshyn—151060D. Habrelyan—1712103
LJan 18 · 08:00O. Kuzyshyn—11117482D. Habrelyan—291111113
O. Kuzyshyn10
LSep 6 · 10:30O. Zhyrnov1.6712137113O. Kuzyshyn2.10101111101LSep 6 · 09:30O. Kuzyshyn1.50118941R. Sopivnyk2.5081111113WSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:00O. Kuzyshyn1.501111113O. Varlamov2.506750WSep 5 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114103A. Droshchynskyi2.20731121WSep 5 · 15:10O. Kuzyshyn1.571111113O. Varlamov2.259560LSep 5 · 13:40O. Kuzyshyn2.105780O. Zhyrnov1.671111113LSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 10:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401071141R. Sopivnyk2.7512119113
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 12:40Y. Holoborodko2.009390D. Habrelyan1.731111113WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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