TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13060607
Played Sep 2Finished
Yevhenii Holoborodko
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311911––––
Daniil Habrelyan
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYevhenii Holoborodko above · Daniil Habrelyan below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Holoborodko 7–14 Daniil Habrelyan Yevhenii Holoborodko has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Habrelyan
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-14 in 21
Habrelyan
Correct
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holoborodko 1643 vs Habrelyan 1530
Holoborodko
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holoborodko 60% vs Habrelyan 100%
Habrelyan
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holoborodko 60% vs Habrelyan 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Holoborodko -1 · Habrelyan +5
Habrelyan
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Habrelyan form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHoloborodko 2.00 / Habrelyan 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Habrelyan)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13060607
Holoborodko2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 67 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back27% 30 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 58
Habrelyan1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 16 of 31
Up 2–0, closes it100% 11 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it77% 13 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHoloborodko3wins
AwayHabrelyan7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHabrelyan leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHoloborodko33.3%1 of 3
AwayHabrelyan71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holoborodko3Habrelyan7n = 10Habrelyan took 7 of 10
S2Holoborodko5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S3Holoborodko5Habrelyan5n = 10split evenly
S4Holoborodko5Habrelyan2n = 7Holoborodko took 5 of 7
S5Holoborodko0Habrelyan4n = 4Habrelyan took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHoloborodkoHabrelyanHoloborodko − HabrelyanBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.139.5−0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHoloborodkoHabrelyanBasisWin rate · lifetime311 / 587 vs 190 / 40553%46.9%311 / 587 vs 190 / 405Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.236.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanHoloborodko 2.00/Habrelyan 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Habrelyan won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 08:00Y. Holoborodko—9450D. Habrelyan—1111113
LAug 26 · 14:40Y. Holoborodko—147111182D. Habrelyan—161157113
WAug 19 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko—31112113D. Habrelyan—1171041
LAug 16 · 10:00Y. Holoborodko—42141132D. Habrelyan—1119115113
LAug 12 · 17:40Y. Holoborodko—1111951D. Habrelyan—51311113
WJul 11 · 14:10Y. Holoborodko—101615113D. Habrelyan—12141361
LJun 28 · 11:00Y. Holoborodko—10121011102D. Habrelyan—1210125123
WJun 18 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko—1111113D. Habrelyan—7510
LJun 13 · 17:10Y. Holoborodko—11811872D. Habrelyan—511311113
LMay 31 · 04:30Y. Holoborodko—6890D. Habrelyan—1111113
Y. Holoborodko10
WSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113WSep 6 · 10:00O. Varlamov1.73111112822Y. Holoborodko2.00841411113LSep 6 · 08:30O. Kuzyshyn1.401111113Y. Holoborodko2.757790LSep 6 · 06:30R. Sopivnyk1.8311811113Y. Holoborodko1.83311941LSep 6 · 04:30O. Zhyrnov1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.503960LSep 5 · 17:40O. Zhyrnov1.571111153Y. Holoborodko2.2586130LSep 5 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko1.8055110R. Sopivnyk1.911111133LSep 5 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.80111142Y. Holoborodko1.919851WSep 5 · 12:10O. Kuzyshyn1.33118671Y. Holoborodko3.2581111113LSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113LSep 3 · 14:40O. Kuzyshyn1.401113113D. Habrelyan2.7571150WSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113LSep 3 · 10:40O. Zhyrnov1.445121715133D. Habrelyan2.6311101913112WSep 2 · 17:10O. Zhyrnov1.44115314112D. Habrelyan2.633111112133WSep 2 · 16:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.61111061182D. Habrelyan2.20812115113LSep 2 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.50812119113D. Habrelyan2.50111091152WSep 2 · 10:40O. Karpenko2.0010980D. Habrelyan1.731211113WAug 28 · 11:00D. Habrelyan1.301111113A. Troyan3.409890
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