TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037640
Played Aug 29Finished
Andrii Droshchynskyi
Home
1.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113118114––––
Yaroslav Makovka
Away
4.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:00 and never touched — 81.5% is still 81.5%
Graded at full timeAndrii Droshchynskyi to win
81.5%
81.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Droshchynskyi above · Yaroslav Makovka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 48 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Andrii Droshchynskyi at 81.5%
48 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Droshchynskyi 9–5 Yaroslav Makovka Yaroslav Makovka has won 5 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:00What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.20 (78%)
Droshchynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-5 in 14
Droshchynskyi
Correct
gap of 4 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Droshchynskyi 1696 vs Makovka 1451
Droshchynskyi
Correct
both rated, 245 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Droshchynskyi 60% vs Makovka 80%
Makovka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Droshchynskyi 70% vs Makovka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Droshchynskyi +1 · Makovka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Droshchynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makovka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (23%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDroshchynskyi 1.20 / Makovka 4.33
Signal prob.82% / 19%
Edge (Droshchynskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037640
Droshchynskyi1.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 65 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it88% 43 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it72% 52 of 72
Makovka4.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 45 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back22% 20 of 91
Down 0–2, comes back5% 3 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDroshchynskyi8wins
AwayMakovka2wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDroshchynskyi leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDroshchynskyi100%7 of 7
AwayMakovka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Droshchynskyi7Makovka3n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Droshchynskyi9Makovka1n = 10Droshchynskyi took 9 of 10
S3Droshchynskyi7Makovka3n = 10Droshchynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Droshchynskyi2Makovka3n = 5Makovka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDroshchynskyiMakovkaD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.227.8+9.4per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDroshchynskyiMakovkaBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 194 vs 147 / 37056.7%39.7%110 / 194 vs 147 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.135.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DroshchynskyiDroshchynskyi 1.20/Makovka 4.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.5%
Droshchynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Droshchynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi—1111113Y. Makovka—3840
WAug 2 · 08:05A. Droshchynskyi—1511113Y. Makovka—13260
WJul 25 · 15:10A. Droshchynskyi—1111113Y. Makovka—3750
WJul 24 · 14:00A. Droshchynskyi—1111113Y. Makovka—7540
WJul 11 · 14:40A. Droshchynskyi—1111113Y. Makovka—9890
WJul 5 · 11:30A. Droshchynskyi—51111113Y. Makovka—119091
LJun 23 · 01:40A. Droshchynskyi—911971Y. Makovka—11611113
WJun 14 · 06:30A. Droshchynskyi—16119113Y. Makovka—1481151
WJun 7 · 07:30A. Droshchynskyi—111169113Y. Makovka—64111172
LMay 24 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi—681191Y. Makovka—11117113
A. Droshchynskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:00A. Droshchynskyi1.40951181Y. Holoborodko2.7511115113LSep 6 · 09:00O. Zhyrnov1.911111113A. Droshchynskyi1.807990WSep 6 · 08:00A. Droshchynskyi1.4011511133O. Varlamov2.754111111WSep 6 · 07:00O. Kuzyshyn1.61761141A. Droshchynskyi2.2011115113WSep 6 · 05:30A. Droshchynskyi1.531111133R. Sopivnyk2.3876110LSep 5 · 16:40O. Kuzyshyn1.6111114103A. Droshchynskyi2.20731121WSep 5 · 15:40A. Droshchynskyi1.83118116113O. Zhyrnov1.8331161142WSep 5 · 13:10A. Droshchynskyi1.44111162O. Varlamov2.639860WSep 5 · 11:10A. Droshchynskyi1.501111113Y. Holoborodko2.509760WAug 29 · 16:40V. Merzlikin2.751210671A. Droshchynskyi1.40101211113
Y. Makovka10
WAug 30 · 10:30O. Blashkun1.40561171Y. Makovka2.7511117113WAug 30 · 09:30Y. Makovka3.001111113R. Sopivnyk1.367420LAug 30 · 08:30Y. Makovka2.7510131081Y. Holoborodko1.40121112113LAug 30 · 07:00Y. Makovka2.7511123292V. Merzlikin1.409101111113LAug 30 · 05:00Y. Makovka2.6312115622O. Zhyrnov1.441081111113LAug 29 · 17:40O. Blashkun1.30811911113Y. Makovka3.4011611572LAug 29 · 16:10Y. Makovka2.506870O. Zhyrnov1.501111113LAug 29 · 14:10O. Varlamov1.5711115133Y. Makovka2.257711111LAug 29 · 12:10V. Merzlikin1.44951111113Y. Makovka2.6311114852LAug 22 · 11:35Y. Makovka2.381112481Y. Volkov1.53131011113
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