TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13066694
Played Sep 3Finished
Andrii Kurtenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151181311––––
Eduard Populovskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:39 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAndrii Kurtenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Eduard Populovskyi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 59 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Andrii Kurtenko 13–10 Eduard Populovskyi Eduard Populovskyi has won 10 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:39What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Populovskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-10 in 23
Kurtenko
Correct
gap of 3 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kurtenko 1440 vs Populovskyi 1442
Populovskyi
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kurtenko 40% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kurtenko 30% vs Populovskyi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kurtenko -2 · Populovskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Populovskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKurtenko 1.91 / Populovskyi 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kurtenko)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13066694
Kurtenko1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 66 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back18% 13 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Populovskyi1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite55% won 104 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it85% 78 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKurtenko7wins
AwayPopulovskyi3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKurtenko77.8%7 of 9
AwayPopulovskyin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kurtenko9Populovskyi1n = 10Kurtenko took 9 of 10
S2Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S3Kurtenko3Populovskyi7n = 10Populovskyi took 7 of 10
S4Kurtenko4Populovskyi5n = 9Populovskyi took 5 of 9
S5Kurtenko5Populovskyi0n = 5Kurtenko took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.338.7+4.6per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKurtenkoPopulovskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime337 / 642 vs 343 / 69852.5%49.1%337 / 642 vs 343 / 698Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KurtenkoKurtenko 1.91/Populovskyi 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Kurtenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kurtenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko—1111133E. Populovskyi—58110
WSep 2 · 09:05A. Kurtenko—111177113E. Populovskyi—86111162
LAug 27 · 11:20A. Kurtenko—1181071E. Populovskyi—31112113
LAug 23 · 07:50A. Kurtenko—9101151E. Populovskyi—11129113
WAug 22 · 19:00A. Kurtenko—11911113E. Populovskyi—911551
WAug 16 · 07:20A. Kurtenko—1181111113E. Populovskyi—71113682
WAug 10 · 07:20A. Kurtenko—1191011133E. Populovskyi—811124112
WAug 9 · 08:20A. Kurtenko—119611113E. Populovskyi—71111462
LJul 12 · 19:00A. Kurtenko—117971E. Populovskyi—71111113
WJul 9 · 09:50A. Kurtenko—1111107113E. Populovskyi—56121172
A. Kurtenko10
WSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153LSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561LSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571LSep 3 · 05:30D. Khairov1.40111313113A. Kurtenko2.753151151LSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.7311711123A. Kurtenko2.006115101
E. Populovskyi10
LSep 6 · 11:50D. Patalakha1.501111113E. Populovskyi2.508570WSep 6 · 10:50E. Populovskyi1.91811411143A. Kovalenko1.80114119122WSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 08:20E. Populovskyi2.202390O. Lipeiko1.611111113LSep 6 · 06:20E. Populovskyi3.25117971S. Solomko1.3381111113WSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 10:35O. Mytsyk1.91119881E. Populovskyi1.8091111113WSep 4 · 09:05K. Klymenko3.4059100E. Populovskyi1.301111123LSep 4 · 07:05A. Kovalenko1.8391111113E. Populovskyi1.83117771WSep 4 · 05:05M. Stetsenko3.406116111E. Populovskyi1.3011911133
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