Andrii Kurtenko vs Vasiliy Smyk 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13079206

Played Sep 5Finished

Andrii Kurtenko

Home

1.83

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

2–8Last 10Won last 1

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

114117911114––

Vasiliy Smyk

Away

1.83

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:32 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Andrii Kurtenko to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Right

no pick shipped

«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.

How it is goingAndrii Kurtenko above · Vasiliy Smyk below

Set 1 · 11-4

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 9-11

Set 4 · 11-4

Point 68 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Andrii Kurtenko at 54.0%

68 points played in total.

H2H Andrii Kurtenko 11–8 Vasiliy Smyk Vasiliy Smyk has won 8 of their 19 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

The pickNo pick published

Sealed 20:32

What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.83 (50%)

Smyk

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

11-8 in 19

Kurtenko

Correct

gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Kurtenko 1397 vs Smyk 1458

Smyk

Wrong

both rated, 61 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Kurtenko 20% vs Smyk 80%

Smyk

Wrong

60pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Kurtenko 20% vs Smyk 60%

Smyk

Wrong

40pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Kurtenko +1 · Smyk +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kurtenko)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Smyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsKurtenko 1.83 / Smyk 1.83

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Kurtenko)+4.0pp

Setka Cup · #13079206

Kurtenko1.83

20%won 2 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

Smyk1.83

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 2

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeKurtenko7wins

AwaySmyk3wins

5 of 10 to a deciderKurtenko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeKurtenko66.7%4 of 6

AwaySmyk25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Kurtenko6Smyk4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10

S2Kurtenko6Smyk4n = 10Kurtenko took 6 of 10

S3Kurtenko5Smyk5n = 10split evenly

S4Kurtenko4Smyk6n = 10Smyk took 6 of 10

S5Kurtenko4Smyk1n = 5Kurtenko took 4 of 5

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricKurtenkoSmykK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.9+0.4per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricKurtenkoSmykBasisWin rate · lifetime338 / 646 vs 273 / 64052.3%42.7%338 / 646 vs 273 / 640Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Kurtenko

Kurtenko 1.83/Smyk 1.83

Read onlywould have hit

What we said

54%

Kurtenko · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Kurtenko won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WAug 23 · 06:50A. Kurtenko—118119113V. Smyk—71161152

WAug 22 · 17:00A. Kurtenko—1191115113V. Smyk—91171792

LAug 19 · 16:00A. Kurtenko—11123552V. Smyk—3101111113

WJul 20 · 08:20A. Kurtenko—411116113V. Smyk—11591192

WJul 19 · 15:30A. Kurtenko—331118113V. Smyk—111161672

LMay 17 · 18:20A. Kurtenko—12116121V. Smyk—14911143

WApr 7 · 11:40A. Kurtenko—11129123V. Smyk—81011101

WMar 7 · 16:50A. Kurtenko—91111113V. Smyk—114251

LAug 4 · 10:50A. Kurtenko—114551V. Smyk—51111113

WMay 22 · 06:20A. Kurtenko—11115123V. Smyk—9711101

A. Kurtenko10

WSep 5 · 16:30A. Kurtenko1.571171163D. Patalakha2.25911621 LSep 5 · 15:00A. Kurtenko2.10851251O. Tymofeev1.6711111073 LSep 5 · 13:30A. Kurtenko1.831112651S. Solomko1.83131011113 LSep 5 · 12:00A. Kurtenko3.5011381272F. Voinarovskyi1.286111110113 LSep 3 · 11:30A. Kurtenko1.807111131S. Solomko1.9111110153 LSep 3 · 09:30I. Emets1.53111111113A. Kurtenko2.38133561 LSep 3 · 07:30O. Osadchyi1.6781111113A. Kurtenko2.10114571 WSep 3 · 06:30A. Kurtenko1.911111133E. Populovskyi1.8058110 LSep 3 · 05:30D. Khairov1.40111313113A. Kurtenko2.753151151 LSep 2 · 11:05O. Osadchyi1.7311711123A. Kurtenko2.006115101

V. Smyk10

LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113 WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080 LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113 WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621 WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361 WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770 WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121 LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133 WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082 WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113

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