TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084473
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411711––––
Bohdan Zaika
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Bohdan Zaika below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Bohdan Zaika at 72.5%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 7–22 Bohdan Zaika Vasiliy Smyk has won 7 of their 29 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Zaika
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-22 in 29
Zaika
Correct
gap of 15 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1437 vs Zaika 1473
Zaika
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Zaika 100%
Zaika
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Zaika 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk +1 · Zaika +5
Zaika
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Zaika)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaika form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 3.25 / Zaika 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Zaika)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084473
Smyk3.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 96 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 72
Zaika1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 63 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it97% 29 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it70% 47 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk2wins
AwayZaika8wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZaika leads 8–2, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk25%1 of 4
AwayZaika83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk4Zaika6n = 10Zaika took 6 of 10
S2Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S3Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S4Smyk3Zaika5n = 8Zaika took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykZaikaS − ZBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.240.7−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykZaikaBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 645 vs 279 / 55842.8%50%276 / 645 vs 279 / 558Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.838.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaSmyk 3.25/Zaika 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zaika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 14:30V. Smyk—11137123B. Zaika—51111101
WJun 23 · 11:40V. Smyk—61111113B. Zaika—117691
LJun 2 · 11:40V. Smyk—1151071B. Zaika—71112113
LMay 10 · 08:20V. Smyk—119561B. Zaika—51111113
LMay 9 · 17:20V. Smyk—411361B. Zaika—11711113
LApr 26 · 10:50V. Smyk—9811141B. Zaika—11119163
LApr 25 · 17:20V. Smyk—1151461B. Zaika—91116113
LApr 19 · 10:50V. Smyk—104111462B. Zaika—1211712113
LApr 18 · 17:20V. Smyk—6590B. Zaika—1111113
LApr 12 · 08:20V. Smyk—71480B. Zaika—1116113
V. Smyk10
WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
B. Zaika10
WSep 6 · 17:00B. Zaika1.6111113113K. Klymenko2.20831191WSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391WSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651WSep 2 · 18:30B. Zaika1.571111113O. Ovsiienko2.257380WSep 2 · 16:30O. Mytsyk2.25861181B. Zaika1.5711116113LSep 2 · 15:30B. Zaika1.6111681192M. Stetsenko2.20611116113LSep 2 · 14:30V. Smyk3.5011137123B. Zaika1.2851111101LSep 2 · 13:00B. Zaika1.5791111552K. Klymenko2.25115811113LAug 30 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.50111213153B. Zaika1.5041015131
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