TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061455
Played Sep 2Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11513117111210––
Bohdan Zaika
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 74.7% is still 74.7%
Graded at full timeBohdan Zaika to win
74.7%
74.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Bohdan Zaika below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 80 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Bohdan Zaika at 74.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 6–22 Bohdan Zaika Vasiliy Smyk has won 6 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Zaika
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-22 in 28
Zaika
Wrong
gap of 16 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1383 vs Zaika 1431
Zaika
Wrong
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 0% vs Zaika 40%
Zaika
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 40% vs Zaika 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -5 · Zaika -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Zaika)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zaika form (40%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 3.50 / Zaika 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Zaika)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061455
Smyk3.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 236
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 129
Down 0–2, comes back5% 4 of 74
Zaika1.28
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 61 of 107
Up 2–0, closes it96% 27 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it70% 45 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk1wins
AwayZaika9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZaika leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmyk0%0 of 3
AwayZaika85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S2Smyk2Zaika8n = 10Zaika took 8 of 10
S3Smyk3Zaika7n = 10Zaika took 7 of 10
S4Smyk2Zaika5n = 7Zaika took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykZaikaS − ZBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.440.3−7.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykZaikaBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 632 vs 276 / 56042.3%49.3%267 / 632 vs 276 / 560Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.738.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZaikaSmyk 3.50/Zaika 1.28
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.7%
Zaika · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 23 · 11:40V. Smyk—61111113B. Zaika—117691
LJun 2 · 11:40V. Smyk—1151071B. Zaika—71112113
LMay 10 · 08:20V. Smyk—119561B. Zaika—51111113
LMay 9 · 17:20V. Smyk—411361B. Zaika—11711113
LApr 26 · 10:50V. Smyk—9811141B. Zaika—11119163
LApr 25 · 17:20V. Smyk—1151461B. Zaika—91116113
LApr 19 · 10:50V. Smyk—104111462B. Zaika—1211712113
LApr 18 · 17:20V. Smyk—6590B. Zaika—1111113
LApr 12 · 08:20V. Smyk—71480B. Zaika—1116113
LApr 11 · 17:20V. Smyk—9880B. Zaika—1111113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082
B. Zaika10
WSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113WSep 6 · 17:00B. Zaika1.6111113113K. Klymenko2.20831191WSep 6 · 16:00B. Zaika1.7311811113S. Baranskyi2.00611391WSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 12:30B. Zaika1.3611311113O. Ovsiienko3.00811651WSep 2 · 18:30B. Zaika1.571111113O. Ovsiienko2.257380WSep 2 · 16:30O. Mytsyk2.25861181B. Zaika1.5711116113LSep 2 · 15:30B. Zaika1.6111681192M. Stetsenko2.20611116113LSep 2 · 13:00B. Zaika1.5791111552K. Klymenko2.25115811113LAug 30 · 18:00A. Kurtenko2.50111213153B. Zaika1.5041015131
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