TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13085261
Played Sep 6Finished
Vasiliy Smyk
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181210118––––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:28 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Leonenko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVasiliy Smyk above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Oleksandr Leonenko at 66.1%
60 points played in total.
H2H Vasiliy Smyk 3–10 Oleksandr Leonenko Vasiliy Smyk has won 3 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Leonenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-10 in 13
Leonenko
Wrong
gap of 7 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Smyk 1425 vs Leonenko 1457
Leonenko
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Smyk 60% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Smyk 70% vs Leonenko 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Smyk -1 · Leonenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Leonenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSmyk 2.63 / Leonenko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Leonenko)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13085261
Smyk2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 96 of 234
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 127
Down 0–2, comes back7% 5 of 72
Leonenko1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 109 of 178
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it78% 60 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSmyk2wins
AwayLeonenko8wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSmykn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLeonenko87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Smyk2Leonenko8n = 10Leonenko took 8 of 10
S2Smyk4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S3Smyk5Leonenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Smyk4Leonenko3n = 7Smyk took 4 of 7
S5Smyk1Leonenko4n = 5Leonenko took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSmykLeonenkoS − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.2−3.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSmykLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime276 / 646 vs 434 / 83842.7%51.8%276 / 646 vs 434 / 838Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LeonenkoSmyk 2.63/Leonenko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.1%
Leonenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Smyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk—1112113O. Leonenko—81080
LAug 16 · 17:00V. Smyk—81161162O. Leonenko—119119113
LAug 9 · 12:30V. Smyk—65111372O. Leonenko—1111411113
LMay 18 · 11:50V. Smyk—881191O. Leonenko—11116113
LJan 8 · 14:10V. Smyk—981271O. Leonenko—111110113
LDec 23 · 17:40V. Smyk—8880O. Leonenko—1111113
LDec 9 · 15:10V. Smyk—810111152O. Leonenko—111223113
LNov 2 · 09:20V. Smyk—6990O. Leonenko—1111113
WNov 1 · 19:20V. Smyk—1011912103O. Leonenko—129111092
LAug 17 · 17:21V. Smyk—111110652O. Leonenko—961211113
V. Smyk10
LSep 6 · 18:00V. Smyk3.259470B. Zaika1.331111113LSep 6 · 15:00V. Smyk1.5711791192K. Klymenko2.25411113113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Smyk1.617111173O. Ovsiienko2.20116621WSep 6 · 12:00V. Smyk1.5711911113S. Baranskyi2.25911361LSep 5 · 18:00A. Kurtenko1.8311119113V. Smyk1.83471141WSep 5 · 17:00V. Smyk2.501111113O. Tymofeev1.506770WSep 5 · 16:00V. Smyk1.8311115113F. Voinarovskyi1.83771121LSep 5 · 14:30V. Smyk2.388118111D. Patalakha1.5311711133WSep 5 · 12:30V. Smyk2.501081112113S. Solomko1.50121161082WSep 2 · 18:00O. Mytsyk1.83101112642V. Smyk1.831281011113
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552WSep 3 · 12:20O. Leonenko1.509111110113O. Ovsiienko2.5011971212WSep 3 · 10:20M. Stetsenko1.809117101O. Leonenko1.9111811123WSep 3 · 09:20O. Leonenko1.831111143A. Kovalenko1.8387120WSep 3 · 08:20K. Klymenko2.20118111132O. Leonenko1.61711413113WSep 3 · 06:50O. Leonenko2.631111113O. Mytsyk1.449680
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