TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067730
Played Sep 3Finished
Maksym Stetsenko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9111187111012––
Oleksandr Leonenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMaksym Stetsenko above · Oleksandr Leonenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 79 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Stetsenko 5–7 Oleksandr Leonenko Maksym Stetsenko has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:49What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stetsenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Leonenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stetsenko 1396 vs Leonenko 1452
Leonenko
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stetsenko 60% vs Leonenko 80%
Leonenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stetsenko 60% vs Leonenko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stetsenko +2 · Leonenko +4
Leonenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Leonenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStetsenko 1.80 / Leonenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stetsenko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13067730
Stetsenko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 129 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it99% 74 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it89% 100 of 112
Leonenko1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 175
Down 0–1, comes back22% 21 of 95
Down 0–2, comes back10% 6 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStetsenko4wins
AwayLeonenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLeonenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStetsenko66.7%4 of 6
AwayLeonenko100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stetsenko6Leonenko4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S2Stetsenko6Leonenko4n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S3Stetsenko4Leonenko6n = 10Leonenko took 6 of 10
S4Stetsenko1Leonenko5n = 6Leonenko took 5 of 6
S5Stetsenko1Leonenko2n = 3Leonenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricStetsenkoLeonenkoS − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match34.935.0−0.1per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStetsenkoLeonenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime437 / 831 vs 432 / 83652.6%51.7%437 / 831 vs 432 / 836Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoStetsenko 1.80/Leonenko 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Leonenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 10:20M. Stetsenko—1111107112O. Leonenko—621211133
LAug 20 · 09:50M. Stetsenko—7480O. Leonenko—1111113
LAug 17 · 08:20M. Stetsenko—5560O. Leonenko—1111113
WAug 16 · 14:00M. Stetsenko—1112103O. Leonenko—81090
LAug 14 · 09:00M. Stetsenko—512681O. Leonenko—111011113
WJul 2 · 09:50M. Stetsenko—11811113O. Leonenko—711511
WJun 29 · 05:50M. Stetsenko—1111711113O. Leonenko—97111362
LJun 25 · 05:35M. Stetsenko—711671O. Leonenko—11411113
WJun 18 · 06:05M. Stetsenko—1111113O. Leonenko—6350
LJun 1 · 09:30M. Stetsenko—116115112O. Leonenko—611811133
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113WSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113WSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113
O. Leonenko10
WSep 7 · 11:05K. Klymenko2.10911121152O. Leonenko1.671113103113WSep 7 · 10:05O. Leonenko2.381111133O. Shyshman1.5343110WSep 7 · 09:05O. Leonenko1.50791111113O. Ovsiienko2.5011119772LSep 7 · 07:35O. Leonenko3.751011651O. Lipeiko1.2512511113WSep 7 · 05:35O. Leonenko1.91111155113A. Martyniuk1.8089111152LSep 6 · 18:30O. Leonenko1.9139111192S. Baranskyi1.80111164113LSep 6 · 16:30V. Smyk2.631112113O. Leonenko1.4481080WSep 6 · 15:30O. Leonenko1.5011119113O. Ovsiienko2.50891171LSep 6 · 14:30B. Zaika1.4411112O. Leonenko2.63560WSep 6 · 13:00O. Leonenko1.611111613103K. Klymenko2.2047111552
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