TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089201
Played Sep 7Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Maksym Stetsenko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:20 and never touched — 74.9% is still 74.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Stetsenko to win
74.9%
74.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Maksym Stetsenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Maksym Stetsenko at 74.9%
59 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 4–9 Maksym Stetsenko Serhii Semenets has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Stetsenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Stetsenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1237 vs Stetsenko 1386
Stetsenko
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 40% vs Stetsenko 80%
Stetsenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 50% vs Stetsenko 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Stetsenko +4
Stetsenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Stetsenko)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 3.25 / Stetsenko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Stetsenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089201
Semenets3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog35% won 47 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Stetsenko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite67% won 124 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it99% 74 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it89% 98 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets2wins
AwayStetsenko8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStetsenko leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets40%2 of 5
AwayStetsenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets5Stetsenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Semenets3Stetsenko7n = 10Stetsenko took 7 of 10
S3Semenets4Stetsenko6n = 10Stetsenko took 6 of 10
S4Semenets1Stetsenko5n = 6Stetsenko took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsStetsenkoSemenets − StetsenkoBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.440.1−5.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsStetsenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime417 / 829 vs 440 / 84050.3%52.4%417 / 829 vs 440 / 840Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StetsenkoSemenets 3.25/Stetsenko 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.9%
Stetsenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stetsenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 19 · 10:05S. Semenets—7470M. Stetsenko—1111113
LMay 18 · 10:00S. Semenets—11812592M. Stetsenko—6111011113
LMay 15 · 05:00S. Semenets—2970M. Stetsenko—1111113
LMay 13 · 06:30S. Semenets—1276101M. Stetsenko—101111123
LMay 8 · 06:30S. Semenets—69150M. Stetsenko—1111173
LMay 6 · 05:00S. Semenets—881391M. Stetsenko—111111113
WApr 28 · 15:40S. Semenets—1411113M. Stetsenko—12960
LApr 27 · 10:05S. Semenets—116891M. Stetsenko—81111113
WApr 24 · 05:00S. Semenets—11115113M. Stetsenko—581171
LApr 22 · 09:30S. Semenets—517117122M. Stetsenko—1115911143
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 12:50V. Melnykov1.401116113S. Semenets2.7551450WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113
M. Stetsenko10
WSep 7 · 12:20O. Mytsyk2.6311115692M. Stetsenko1.44771111113WSep 7 · 09:50V. Stukalov2.5012330M. Stetsenko1.501411113WSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113WSep 7 · 05:50V. Korniichuk2.7511470M. Stetsenko1.401311113WSep 6 · 12:20O. Lipeiko1.571171091M. Stetsenko2.2511112113LSep 6 · 11:20S. Solomko1.251211113M. Stetsenko3.7510670LSep 6 · 09:50E. Populovskyi1.301111113M. Stetsenko3.406890LSep 6 · 07:50A. Kovalenko1.4012711113M. Stetsenko2.751011791WSep 6 · 05:50D. Patalakha1.61781171M. Stetsenko2.2011114113LSep 4 · 11:05M. Stetsenko2.6368120K. Klymenko1.441111143
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