TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088745
Played Sep 7Finished
Volodymyr Melnykov
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151614115––––
Serhii Semenets
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:18 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Melnykov to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Melnykov above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 62 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Volodymyr Melnykov at 70.6%
62 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Melnykov 12–2 Serhii Semenets Serhii Semenets has won 2 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Melnykov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-2 in 14
Melnykov
Correct
gap of 10 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnykov 1345 vs Semenets 1228
Melnykov
Correct
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnykov 40% vs Semenets 20%
Melnykov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnykov 40% vs Semenets 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnykov +2 · Semenets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Melnykov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnykov 1.40 / Semenets 2.75
Signal prob.71% / 29%
Edge (Melnykov)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13088745
Melnykov1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 60 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it94% 29 of 31
Up 1–0, closes it72% 41 of 57
Semenets2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 47 of 135
Down 0–1, comes back21% 16 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back8% 4 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnykov8wins
AwaySemenets2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnykov leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnykov100%5 of 5
AwaySemenets40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnykov5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnykov6Semenets4n = 10Melnykov took 6 of 10
S3Melnykov7Semenets3n = 10Melnykov took 7 of 10
S4Melnykov4Semenets4n = 8split evenly
S5Melnykov4Semenets0n = 4Melnykov took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnykovSemenetsM − SBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.1+2.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnykovSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime248 / 540 vs 417 / 83045.9%50.2%248 / 540 vs 417 / 830Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnykovMelnykov 1.40/Semenets 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.6%
Melnykov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Melnykov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WApr 12 · 17:50V. Melnykov—1311116113S. Semenets—15761152
WDec 18 · 07:20V. Melnykov—561113113S. Semenets—111141182
WDec 17 · 22:50V. Melnykov—11511113S. Semenets—711671
LDec 11 · 13:50V. Melnykov—541361S. Semenets—111111113
WDec 10 · 22:50V. Melnykov—113118113S. Semenets—71161192
WNov 17 · 11:20V. Melnykov—1212113S. Semenets—101060
LNov 16 · 18:50V. Melnykov—811851S. Semenets—11911113
WNov 11 · 09:00V. Melnykov—1111113S. Semenets—8550
WApr 17 · 06:50V. Melnykov—812811113S. Semenets—111011582
WApr 13 · 16:20V. Melnykov—11119113S. Semenets—861171
V. Melnykov10
WSep 7 · 10:50V. Stukalov3.40117791V. Melnykov1.3081111113WSep 7 · 08:50V. Korniichuk2.1081050V. Melnykov1.671112113LSep 7 · 07:50V. Melnykov1.83116651M. Stetsenko1.8341111113LSep 7 · 06:50O. Mytsyk1.67212713123V. Melnykov2.1011101111102LSep 4 · 11:35V. Melnykov1.914660E. Populovskyi1.801111113WSep 4 · 09:35M. Stetsenko1.73611831V. Melnykov2.0011311113LSep 4 · 08:35V. Melnykov2.25111410482O. Mytsyk1.579121211113WSep 4 · 07:35K. Klymenko3.2581311472V. Melnykov1.331111811113LSep 4 · 06:05V. Melnykov2.10961111102A. Kovalenko1.67111129123LAug 27 · 11:30O. Ovsiienko1.731111113V. Melnykov2.006990
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 11:20S. Semenets3.258990M. Stetsenko1.331111113WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113
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