TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13073046
Played Sep 4Finished
Serhii Semenets
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811115811911––
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:58 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Semenets above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 56.2%
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Semenets 25–19 Mykhailo Khalenko Mykhailo Khalenko has won 19 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:58What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-19 in 44
Semenets
Wrong
gap of 6 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semenets 1255 vs Khalenko 1287
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semenets 80% vs Khalenko 60%
Semenets
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semenets 50% vs Khalenko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Semenets +1 · Khalenko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemenets 2.25 / Khalenko 1.57
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Khalenko)-0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13073046
Semenets2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 43 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 44
Khalenko1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite79% won 46 of 58
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemenets3wins
AwayKhalenko7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKhalenko leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemenets60%3 of 5
AwayKhalenko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semenets5Khalenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Semenets2Khalenko8n = 10Khalenko took 8 of 10
S3Semenets9Khalenko1n = 10Semenets took 9 of 10
S4Semenets1Khalenko7n = 8Khalenko took 7 of 8
S5Semenets1Khalenko2n = 3Khalenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemenetsKhalenkoS − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.840.4−4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemenetsKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime416 / 825 vs 187 / 37050.4%50.5%416 / 825 vs 187 / 370Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoSemenets 2.25/Khalenko 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 24 · 10:35S. Semenets—11911052M. Khalenko—911811113
LAug 18 · 09:59S. Semenets—891161M. Khalenko—11118113
WAug 16 · 10:35S. Semenets—1111113M. Khalenko—7790
LJul 28 · 10:00S. Semenets—871161M. Khalenko—11116113
LJul 22 · 12:30S. Semenets—71211101M. Khalenko—11149123
WJul 11 · 10:00S. Semenets—124117123M. Khalenko—1011811102
WJul 8 · 17:30S. Semenets—1111123M. Khalenko—68100
LJul 5 · 07:50S. Semenets—671181M. Khalenko—11116113
LJun 30 · 06:30S. Semenets—105111152M. Khalenko—121198113
LMay 15 · 09:30S. Semenets—115581M. Khalenko—81111113
S. Semenets10
WSep 7 · 09:20O. Mytsyk1.30111196102S. Semenets3.40841111123LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112
M. Khalenko10
WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970WSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113WSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113LAug 31 · 11:50K. Klymenko1.441111113M. Khalenko2.636630
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