TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067536
Played Sep 3Finished
Sergey Osipov
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118811118811411
Mykhailo Khalenko
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:10 and never touched — 67.9% is still 67.9%
Graded at full timeMykhailo Khalenko to win
67.9%
67.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergey Osipov above · Mykhailo Khalenko below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 91 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Mykhailo Khalenko at 67.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Sergey Osipov 2–6 Mykhailo Khalenko Sergey Osipov has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:10What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Khalenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-6 in 8
Khalenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osipov 1151 vs Khalenko 1298
Khalenko
Correct
both rated, 147 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osipov 40% vs Khalenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osipov 70% vs Khalenko 20%
Osipov
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osipov -2 · Khalenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Khalenko) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khalenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsipov 2.75 / Khalenko 1.40
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Khalenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13067536
Osipov2.75
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 27 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Khalenko1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite78% won 47 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeOsipov2wins
AwayKhalenko6wins
5 of 8 to a deciderKhalenko leads 6–2, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsipovn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKhalenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osipov1Khalenko7n = 8Khalenko took 7 of 8
S2Osipov4Khalenko4n = 8split evenly
S3Osipov2Khalenko6n = 8Khalenko took 6 of 8
S4Osipov4Khalenko2n = 6Osipov took 4 of 6
S5Osipov2Khalenko3n = 5Khalenko took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricOsipovKhalenkoO − KBasisWins26−4in 8 meetingsFirst set17−6of 8Avg pointsper match37.143.6−6.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsipovKhalenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 289 vs 186 / 36848.1%50.5%139 / 289 vs 186 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhalenkoOsipov 2.75/Khalenko 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.7%
Khalenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Khalenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov—11811842M. Khalenko—811811113
LMay 2 · 06:30S. Osipov—61380M. Khalenko—1115113
WMar 1 · 08:35S. Osipov—611811113M. Khalenko—11911772
LNov 20 · 12:35S. Osipov—54111182M. Khalenko—111179113
LNov 16 · 08:05S. Osipov—811841M. Khalenko—11811113
LNov 10 · 12:30S. Osipov—512121162M. Khalenko—1110144113
LOct 11 · 09:30S. Osipov—7490M. Khalenko—1111113
WSep 29 · 10:30S. Osipov—611511123M. Khalenko—117116102
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113WAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.445780S. Osipov2.631111113LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113WAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov1.221311113M. Tkalich4.0011750WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
M. Khalenko10
WSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 15:30S. Yakimenko1.8311611552M. Khalenko1.83711911113LSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151LSep 4 · 12:30Y. Korotin1.831111113M. Khalenko1.835690WSep 3 · 11:35V. Stukalov2.0011911492M. Khalenko1.73111911113WSep 3 · 10:35S. Semenets2.20512761M. Khalenko1.61111011113LSep 3 · 09:05V. Korniichuk1.281111113M. Khalenko3.509970WSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113LAug 31 · 11:50K. Klymenko1.441111113M. Khalenko2.636630
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