TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043730
Played Aug 30Finished
Sergey Osipov
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111191214117811
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:17 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergey Osipov above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 100 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 58.9%
100 points played in total.
H2H Sergey Osipov 1–3 Serhii Semenets Sergey Osipov has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:17What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Semenets
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osipov 1171 vs Semenets 1320
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osipov 100% vs Semenets 80%
Osipov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osipov 100% vs Semenets 80%
Osipov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osipov +5 · Semenets -1
Osipov
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Semenets) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsipov 2.50 / Semenets 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Semenets)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043730
Osipov2.50
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Semenets1.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 98 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it75% 74 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeOsipov1wins
AwaySemenets3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderSemenets leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsipov33.3%1 of 3
AwaySemenetsn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osipov3Semenets1n = 4Osipov took 3 of 4
S2Osipov2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
S3Osipov2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
S4Osipov0Semenets3n = 3Semenets took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricOsipovSemenetsO − SBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match32.837.0−4.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsipovSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 281 vs 414 / 82248.8%50.4%137 / 281 vs 414 / 822Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsOsipov 2.50/Semenets 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LJul 19 · 08:05S. Osipov—12116662S. Semenets—1021111113
WJun 20 · 10:00S. Osipov—1311113S. Semenets—11930
LMay 25 · 10:05S. Osipov—511171S. Semenets—11118113
LMay 20 · 10:05S. Osipov—118751S. Semenets—61111113
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113WAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.445780S. Osipov2.631111113WAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov1.221311113M. Tkalich4.0011750WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121WSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113
Upcoming Matches
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S. Semenets
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