TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13067026
Played Sep 3Finished
Sergey Osipov
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711811––––
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 60.5% is still 60.5%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
60.5%
60.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSergey Osipov above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 56 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 60.5%
56 points played in total.
H2H Sergey Osipov 1–5 Serhii Semenets Sergey Osipov has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Semenets
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Osipov 1151 vs Semenets 1240
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Osipov 20% vs Semenets 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Osipov 50% vs Semenets 30%
Osipov
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Osipov -1 · Semenets -4
Semenets
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Semenets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOsipov 2.25 / Semenets 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Semenets)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13067026
Osipov2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Semenets1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 97 of 187
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it75% 75 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeOsipov1wins
AwaySemenets5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderSemenets leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOsipov33.3%1 of 3
AwaySemenets100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Osipov3Semenets3n = 6split evenly
S2Osipov3Semenets3n = 6split evenly
S3Osipov2Semenets4n = 6Semenets took 4 of 6
S4Osipov1Semenets3n = 4Semenets took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricOsipovSemenetsO − SBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match33.738.8−5.1per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOsipovSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 289 vs 418 / 83048.1%50.4%139 / 289 vs 418 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.037.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsOsipov 2.25/Semenets 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov—8780S. Semenets—1111113
LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov—611121182S. Semenets—119147113
LJul 19 · 08:05S. Osipov—12116662S. Semenets—1021111113
WJun 20 · 10:00S. Osipov—1311113S. Semenets—11930
LMay 25 · 10:05S. Osipov—511171S. Semenets—11118113
LMay 20 · 10:05S. Osipov—118751S. Semenets—61111113
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113WAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.445780S. Osipov2.631111113LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113WAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov1.221311113M. Tkalich4.0011750WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121WAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113
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