TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043871
Played Aug 30Finished
Vitalii Mukhin
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711811––––
Sergey Osipov
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
9–1Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeVitalii Mukhin to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingVitalii Mukhin above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Vitalii Mukhin at 55.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Mukhin 1–0 Sergey Osipov Sergey Osipov has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mukhin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mukhin 1232 vs Osipov 1183
Mukhin
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mukhin 100% vs Osipov 80%
Mukhin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mukhin 60% vs Osipov 90%
Osipov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mukhin +5 · Osipov -1
Mukhin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Mukhin) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMukhin 1.44 / Osipov 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Mukhin)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13043871
Mukhin1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 90 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it96% 50 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it78% 66 of 85
Osipov2.63
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 26 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back16% 4 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeMukhin1wins
AwayOsipov0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderMukhin leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricMukhinOsipovM − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match52.047.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMukhinOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 289 vs 138 / 28350.2%48.8%145 / 289 vs 138 / 283Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MukhinMukhin 1.44/Osipov 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.5%
Mukhin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Osipov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WMar 19 · 14:40V. Mukhin—7111112113S. Osipov—11871472
V. Mukhin10
WSep 5 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.361111113V. Stukalov3.009850WSep 5 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.201111113O. Stopin4.339760WSep 5 · 08:05V. Mukhin1.571112113V. Kucheriavyi2.2561020WSep 5 · 06:35V. Mukhin1.44911118113V. Varchenko2.6311641152LSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 18:00V. Mukhin2.6311119342Y. Korotin1.44981111113LSep 4 · 16:30V. Mukhin2.6386100S. Yakimenko1.441111123WSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 13:30V. Mukhin2.3811147113M. Khalenko1.535121151WSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113WAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov1.221311113M. Tkalich4.0011750WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
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