TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043795
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411911––––
Sergey Osipov
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Sergey Osipov below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 55 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 29–13 Sergey Osipov Sergey Osipov has won 13 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side1 for · 5 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Osipov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-13 in 42
Ponomarenko
Wrong
gap of 16 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1024 vs Osipov 1170
Osipov
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Osipov 100%
Osipov
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Osipov 90%
Osipov
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Osipov +5
Osipov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Osipov) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Osipov form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.91 / Osipov 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Osipov)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13043795
Ponomarenko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 152
Down 0–1, comes back17% 15 of 88
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 60
Osipov1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite75% won 36 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 23 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it91% 30 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayOsipov3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko100%3 of 3
AwayOsipov42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Osipov7n = 10Osipov took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Osipov3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko5Osipov5n = 10split evenly
S4Ponomarenko6Osipov1n = 7Ponomarenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoOsipovP − OBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.133.5+2.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoOsipovBasisWin rate · lifetime301 / 651 vs 138 / 28446.2%48.6%301 / 651 vs 138 / 284Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OsipovPonomarenko 1.91/Osipov 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Osipov · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Osipov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko—9490S. Osipov—1111113
LAug 25 · 06:05O. Ponomarenko—56110S. Osipov—1111133
WAug 18 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko—11117113S. Osipov—591171
WJul 19 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko—1111123S. Osipov—88100
LMay 25 · 07:05O. Ponomarenko—411731S. Osipov—11611113
WMay 24 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko—7111111113S. Osipov—11813652
WMay 20 · 08:05O. Ponomarenko—91111113S. Osipov—117921
WMay 9 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko—61111113S. Osipov—118481
WMay 3 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko—11711113S. Osipov—411461
WMay 2 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko—81314113S. Osipov—11111281
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
S. Osipov10
LSep 3 · 12:05S. Osipov2.258780S. Semenets1.571111113LSep 3 · 10:05V. Korniichuk1.20111011113S. Osipov4.33712541WSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113LSep 3 · 07:05S. Osipov2.7511811842M. Khalenko1.40811811113LSep 3 · 06:05V. Stukalov1.2011911113S. Osipov4.33611561LAug 30 · 11:35S. Osipov2.639640D. Khavanskyi1.441111113WAug 30 · 09:35V. Mukhin1.445780S. Osipov2.631111113LAug 30 · 08:35S. Osipov2.50611121182S. Semenets1.50119147113WAug 30 · 06:05S. Osipov1.221311113M. Tkalich4.0011750WAug 28 · 18:00O. Efimov3.25311361S. Osipov1.3311911113
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