TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015927
Played Aug 26Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511511511––––
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:31 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 48 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 64.8%
48 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 12–25 Serhii Semenets Oleh Ponomarenko has won 12 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-25 in 37
Semenets
Correct
gap of 13 in 37, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1067 vs Semenets 1277
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Semenets 80%
Semenets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Semenets 50%
Semenets
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Semenets -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Semenets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Semenets 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Semenets)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13015927
Ponomarenko2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 50 of 146
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Semenets1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 99 of 189
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it75% 75 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko2wins
AwaySemenets8wins
Semenets leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko50%2 of 4
AwaySemenets100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Semenets6n = 10Semenets took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko5Semenets5n = 10split evenly
S3Ponomarenko2Semenets8n = 10Semenets took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko0Semenets5n = 5Semenets took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoSemenetsP − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match29.435.7−6.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime308 / 655 vs 415 / 82547%50.3%308 / 655 vs 415 / 825Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsPonomarenko 2.38/Semenets 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.8%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko—5550S. Semenets—1111113
LAug 9 · 09:35O. Ponomarenko—131050S. Semenets—1512113
LAug 2 · 12:50O. Ponomarenko—7890S. Semenets—1111113
LJul 28 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko—6139101S. Semenets—111111123
LJul 25 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko—119291S. Semenets—71111113
LJul 22 · 18:00O. Ponomarenko—211691S. Semenets—11911113
LJul 19 · 11:05O. Ponomarenko—611721S. Semenets—11611113
WJul 15 · 12:00O. Ponomarenko—1112113S. Semenets—61090
LJul 11 · 05:00O. Ponomarenko—118991S. Semenets—31111113
WJul 5 · 10:50O. Ponomarenko—1111113S. Semenets—9890
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 07:20V. Korniichuk1.53111011113S. Semenets2.38912471LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882
Upcoming Matches
O. Ponomarenko
Nothing scheduled
S. Semenets
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