TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043898
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811311711––––
Denys Khavanskyi
Away
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:31 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Denys Khavanskyi below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 51 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 64.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 4–7 Denys Khavanskyi Oleh Ponomarenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:31What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Khavanskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Khavanskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1031 vs Khavanskyi 1214
Khavanskyi
Correct
both rated, 183 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Khavanskyi 40%
Khavanskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Khavanskyi 60%
Khavanskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -2 · Khavanskyi +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Khavanskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Khavanskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.75 / Khavanskyi 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 70%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13043898
Ponomarenko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 48 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back18% 15 of 84
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Khavanskyi1.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite33% won 13 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it73% 11 of 15
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko3wins
AwayKhavanskyi7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko50%2 of 4
AwayKhavanskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko7Khavanskyi3n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Ponomarenko4Khavanskyi6n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Khavanskyi5n = 9Khavanskyi took 5 of 9
S5Ponomarenko1Khavanskyi4n = 5Khavanskyi took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoKhavanskyiP − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.643.3−1.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoKhavanskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime303 / 655 vs 152 / 29646.3%51.4%303 / 655 vs 152 / 296Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.535.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiPonomarenko 2.75/Khavanskyi 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.5%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 26 · 06:30O. Ponomarenko—1071111102D. Khavanskyi—121188123
LAug 25 · 11:35O. Ponomarenko—12111111102D. Khavanskyi—144138123
LSep 5 · 09:50O. Ponomarenko—811851D. Khavanskyi—11811113
LJul 29 · 15:40O. Ponomarenko—1111941D. Khavanskyi—91311113
WJul 22 · 17:10O. Ponomarenko—1111113D. Khavanskyi—6960
LJul 13 · 14:40O. Ponomarenko—11115382D. Khavanskyi—671111103
LMay 14 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko—1011512122D. Khavanskyi—1261110143
LMay 12 · 04:30O. Ponomarenko—611471D. Khavanskyi—11611113
WMay 7 · 06:30O. Ponomarenko—61211163D. Khavanskyi—11109141
WMay 5 · 07:00O. Ponomarenko—1271110113D. Khavanskyi—101151262
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882LSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591LSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740LSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113WSep 3 · 06:35D. Khavanskyi1.671111113S. Semenets2.109980WAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172
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