TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043778
Played Aug 30Finished
Oleh Ponomarenko
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511911114115116
Maksym Tkalich
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:29 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeOleh Ponomarenko to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleh Ponomarenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 84 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Oleh Ponomarenko at 61.7%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oleh Ponomarenko 29–34 Maksym Tkalich Oleh Ponomarenko has won 29 of their 63 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:29What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ponomarenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-34 in 63
Tkalich
Wrong
gap of 5 in 63, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1024 vs Tkalich 915
Ponomarenko
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 20% vs Tkalich 0%
Ponomarenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 10% vs Tkalich 30%
Tkalich
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -3 · Tkalich -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Ponomarenko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (0%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 1.50 / Tkalich 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Ponomarenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13043778
Ponomarenko1.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite69% won 83 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it100% 44 of 44
Up 1–0, closes it87% 60 of 69
Tkalich2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko7wins
AwayTkalich3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPonomarenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko87.5%7 of 8
AwayTkalichn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko8Tkalich2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S2Ponomarenko8Tkalich2n = 10Ponomarenko took 8 of 10
S3Ponomarenko6Tkalich4n = 10Ponomarenko took 6 of 10
S4Ponomarenko2Tkalich3n = 5Tkalich took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoTkalichP − TBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.430.4+7.0per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime304 / 656 vs 116 / 26146.3%44.4%304 / 656 vs 116 / 261Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.436.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PonomarenkoPonomarenko 1.50/Tkalich 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Ponomarenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 15:00O. Ponomarenko—1311113M. Tkalich—11670
WAug 22 · 07:20O. Ponomarenko—11115113M. Tkalich—441161
WAug 15 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Tkalich—9550
LAug 9 · 08:35O. Ponomarenko—5138101M. Tkalich—111111123
WAug 2 · 07:50O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Tkalich—8980
LJul 25 · 07:30O. Ponomarenko—1311841M. Tkalich—15711113
WJul 19 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko—119118113M. Tkalich—91121172
WJul 5 · 06:20O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Tkalich—9440
LJul 4 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko—111071272M. Tkalich—3121110113
WJun 28 · 14:10O. Ponomarenko—1111113M. Tkalich—8460
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 11:20D. Khavanskyi1.33111158113O. Ponomarenko3.2579111172LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
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