TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079176
Played Sep 5Finished
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611115115115––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Mykhalchenko to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Mykhalchenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 65 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Volodymyr Mykhalchenko at 63.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 10–11 Maksym Tkalich Volodymyr Mykhalchenko has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Mykhalchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-11 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhalchenko 1142 vs Tkalich 890
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 252 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhalchenko 80% vs Tkalich 20%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhalchenko 80% vs Tkalich 10%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhalchenko +2 · Tkalich -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Mykhalchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhalchenko 1.44 / Tkalich 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Mykhalchenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13079176
Mykhalchenko1.44
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite71% won 34 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it86% 25 of 29
Tkalich2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhalchenko5wins
AwayTkalich5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhalchenko33.3%2 of 6
AwayTkalich25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhalchenko6Tkalich4n = 10Mykhalchenko took 6 of 10
S2Mykhalchenko7Tkalich3n = 10Mykhalchenko took 7 of 10
S3Mykhalchenko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S4Mykhalchenko7Tkalich2n = 9Mykhalchenko took 7 of 9
S5Mykhalchenko0Tkalich4n = 4Tkalich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.2+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 233 vs 115 / 26056.2%44.2%131 / 233 vs 115 / 260Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.935.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MykhalchenkoMykhalchenko 1.44/Tkalich 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Mykhalchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko—6111183M. Tkalich—115531
LAug 29 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko—11491172M. Tkalich—611114113
WAug 23 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko—71512113M. Tkalich—11131071
LAug 22 · 12:50V. Mykhalchenko—51141272M. Tkalich—1151110113
LAug 9 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko—11771132M. Tkalich—411116113
WJul 12 · 17:10V. Mykhalchenko—11118113M. Tkalich—291131
WJul 4 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko—1111113M. Tkalich—6660
LJun 28 · 11:10V. Mykhalchenko—1310381M. Tkalich—111211113
LMay 9 · 12:30V. Mykhalchenko—111198102M. Tkalich—841111123
WMay 2 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko—71111133M. Tkalich—1189111
V. Mykhalchenko10
WSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102LSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782WSep 6 · 07:35M. Zaiats2.208611131V. Mykhalchenko1.6111118153WSep 6 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.141111113K. Tsoi5.003580WSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Zaiats2.389161511112V. Mykhalchenko1.531118138133LSep 5 · 06:30V. Mykhalchenko1.1411116672D. Kunchurov5.00791111113WSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113WAug 29 · 10:30D. Kunchurov4.5071170V. Mykhalchenko1.171113113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
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