TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084327
Played Sep 6Finished
Kostiantyn Tsoi
Home
3.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161012811711––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.29
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Tsoi above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 76 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 73.5%
76 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Tsoi 14–26 Maksym Tkalich Kostiantyn Tsoi has won 14 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.28 (73%)
Tkalich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-26 in 40
Tkalich
Correct
gap of 12 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tsoi 866 vs Tkalich 865
Tsoi
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tsoi 40% vs Tkalich 20%
Tsoi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tsoi 60% vs Tkalich 20%
Tsoi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tsoi +1 · Tkalich -3
Tkalich
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (20%) is below what odds imply (78%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTsoi 3.50 / Tkalich 1.28
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Tkalich)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13084327
Tsoi3.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog9% won 2 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 15
Tkalich1.28
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 36 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTsoi0wins
AwayTkalich10wins
3 of 10 to a deciderTkalich leads 10–0, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTsoi0%0 of 4
AwayTkalich100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tsoi4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S2Tsoi1Tkalich9n = 10Tkalich took 9 of 10
S3Tsoi2Tkalich8n = 10Tkalich took 8 of 10
S4Tsoi1Tkalich4n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
S5Tsoi0Tkalich3n = 3Tkalich took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricTsoiTkalichTsoi − TkalichBasisWins010−10in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.939.3−7.4per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTsoiTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime28 / 97 vs 114 / 26028.9%43.9%28 / 97 vs 114 / 260Avg sets wonper match1.31.8per matchAvg pointsper match32.436.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTsoi 3.50/Tkalich 1.28
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkalich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi—1110871M. Tkalich—61211113
LAug 15 · 11:30K. Tsoi—5880M. Tkalich—1111113
LMay 9 · 15:30K. Tsoi—6111181M. Tkalich—11136113
LApr 18 · 05:05K. Tsoi—7860M. Tkalich—1111113
LApr 11 · 06:30K. Tsoi—116117132M. Tkalich—411911153
LMar 29 · 11:35K. Tsoi—910110M. Tkalich—1112133
LMar 21 · 08:30K. Tsoi—4880M. Tkalich—1111113
LFeb 1 · 09:05K. Tsoi—115511102M. Tkalich—311117113
LJan 18 · 09:05K. Tsoi—111156102M. Tkalich—671111123
LJan 3 · 07:30K. Tsoi—13720M. Tkalich—1511113
K. Tsoi10
WSep 6 · 10:05M. Zaiats1.80411841K. Tsoi1.9111411113LSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.141111113K. Tsoi5.003580LAug 15 · 11:30M. Tkalich1.301111113K. Tsoi3.405880WAug 15 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.301112113S. Kuzko3.4081070WAug 15 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00111141192K. Tsoi1.14135119113WAug 15 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.307117111K. Tsoi3.4011811133LAug 15 · 05:00D. Kunchurov1.801112113K. Tsoi1.9141070WJun 20 · 10:30M. Mykhailenko4.336780K. Tsoi1.201111113
M. Tkalich10
LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113WAug 15 · 11:30M. Tkalich1.301111113K. Tsoi3.405880
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