TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13043726
Played Aug 30Finished
Maksym Tkalich
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
211311711––––
Serhii Semenets
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:15 and never touched — 71.6% is still 71.6%
Graded at full timeSerhii Semenets to win
71.6%
71.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Serhii Semenets below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 45 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Serhii Semenets at 71.6%
45 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tkalich 5–6 Serhii Semenets Maksym Tkalich has won 5 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:15What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Semenets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-6 in 11
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 918 vs Semenets 1297
Semenets
Correct
both rated, 379 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 0% vs Semenets 60%
Semenets
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 30% vs Semenets 80%
Semenets
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich -5 · Semenets -1
Tkalich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Semenets) · live re-read · sealed at 72% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semenets form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 3.40 / Semenets 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Semenets)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13043726
Tkalich3.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog38% won 33 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back21% 9 of 43
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Semenets1.30
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite52% won 98 of 188
Up 2–0, closes it93% 51 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it75% 74 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkalich4wins
AwaySemenets6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSemenets leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkalich66.7%4 of 6
AwaySemenets100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkalich6Semenets4n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S2Tkalich3Semenets7n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S3Tkalich3Semenets7n = 10Semenets took 7 of 10
S4Tkalich2Semenets2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkalichSemenetsT − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.034.5−1.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichSemenetsBasisWin rate · lifetime116 / 260 vs 415 / 82444.6%50.4%116 / 260 vs 415 / 824Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemenetsTkalich 3.40/Semenets 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.1%
Semenets · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Semenets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 9 · 06:35M. Tkalich—8690S. Semenets—1111113
LAug 2 · 11:20M. Tkalich—1110551S. Semenets—31211113
WJul 25 · 06:30M. Tkalich—118119113S. Semenets—51191182
LJul 19 · 05:05M. Tkalich—5660S. Semenets—1111113
LJul 4 · 10:35M. Tkalich—67100S. Semenets—1111123
LJun 28 · 17:40M. Tkalich—79150S. Semenets—1111173
LJun 27 · 05:35M. Tkalich—114131382S. Semenets—7111511113
WJun 15 · 05:30M. Tkalich—11117113S. Semenets—961171
WJun 13 · 05:00M. Tkalich—1111113S. Semenets—9870
WJun 6 · 09:00M. Tkalich—1111113S. Semenets—4360
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
S. Semenets10
LSep 7 · 06:20V. Stukalov1.831111113S. Semenets1.835930LSep 5 · 11:35O. Stopin1.915111011133S. Semenets1.80115126112WSep 5 · 10:35V. Varchenko2.6310119121S. Semenets1.4412811143LSep 5 · 09:05V. Stukalov1.831511153S. Semenets1.83137130WSep 5 · 07:05V. Kucheriavyi1.831111361S. Semenets1.8313811113WSep 5 · 05:05V. Mukhin1.4411126762S. Semenets2.639101111113LSep 4 · 19:00S. Semenets2.25811891M. Khalenko1.5711511113WSep 4 · 17:00Y. Korotin1.91100S. Semenets1.80121LSep 4 · 15:00V. Mukhin1.401111912133S. Semenets2.75671114112WSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882
Upcoming Matches
M. Tkalich
Nothing scheduled
S. Semenets
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