TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084188
Played Sep 6Finished
Volodymyr Mykhalchenko
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13115111618117118
Maksym Tkalich
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:21 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Mykhalchenko to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Mykhalchenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 16-18
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 111 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Volodymyr Mykhalchenko at 67.3%
111 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Mykhalchenko 11–11 Maksym Tkalich Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:21What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Mykhalchenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhalchenko 1155 vs Tkalich 882
Mykhalchenko
Correct
both rated, 273 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhalchenko 100% vs Tkalich 40%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhalchenko 90% vs Tkalich 20%
Mykhalchenko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhalchenko +5 · Tkalich -1
Mykhalchenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Mykhalchenko) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mykhalchenko form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhalchenko 1.36 / Tkalich 3.00
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Mykhalchenko)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13084188
Mykhalchenko1.36
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite72% won 38 of 53
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it85% 28 of 33
Tkalich3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 32 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back18% 8 of 44
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhalchenko5wins
AwayTkalich5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhalchenko42.9%3 of 7
AwayTkalich33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhalchenko7Tkalich3n = 10Mykhalchenko took 7 of 10
S2Mykhalchenko6Tkalich4n = 10Mykhalchenko took 6 of 10
S3Mykhalchenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S4Mykhalchenko7Tkalich2n = 9Mykhalchenko took 7 of 9
S5Mykhalchenko1Tkalich4n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.0+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhalchenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 233 vs 113 / 25956.7%43.6%132 / 233 vs 113 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match36.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MykhalchenkoMykhalchenko 1.36/Tkalich 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.6%
Mykhalchenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mykhalchenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko—1351611113M. Tkalich—111118782
WSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko—61111113M. Tkalich—115551
LAug 29 · 05:00V. Mykhalchenko—11491172M. Tkalich—611114113
WAug 23 · 14:00V. Mykhalchenko—71512113M. Tkalich—11131071
LAug 22 · 12:50V. Mykhalchenko—51141272M. Tkalich—1151110113
LAug 9 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko—11771132M. Tkalich—411116113
WJul 12 · 17:10V. Mykhalchenko—11118113M. Tkalich—291131
WJul 4 · 12:05V. Mykhalchenko—1111113M. Tkalich—6660
LJun 28 · 11:10V. Mykhalchenko—1310381M. Tkalich—111211113
LMay 9 · 12:30V. Mykhalchenko—111198102M. Tkalich—841111123
V. Mykhalchenko10
WSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102LSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 07:35M. Zaiats2.208611131V. Mykhalchenko1.6111118153WSep 6 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.141111113K. Tsoi5.003580WSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551WSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 07:30M. Zaiats2.389161511112V. Mykhalchenko1.531118138133LSep 5 · 06:30V. Mykhalchenko1.1411116672D. Kunchurov5.00791111113WSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113WAug 29 · 10:30D. Kunchurov4.5071170V. Mykhalchenko1.171113113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
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