TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13079072
Played Sep 5Finished
Kyryl Vernudin
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
711116119116––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:10 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKyryl Vernudin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKyryl Vernudin above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 72 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Kyryl Vernudin at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Kyryl Vernudin 2–3 Maksym Tkalich Kyryl Vernudin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:10What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vernudin 929 vs Tkalich 915
Vernudin
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vernudin 60% vs Tkalich 0%
Vernudin
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vernudin 50% vs Tkalich 30%
Vernudin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vernudin +2 · Tkalich -5
Tkalich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Vernudin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVernudin 1.91 / Tkalich 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Vernudin)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13079072
Vernudin1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog27% won 8 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back14% 3 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Tkalich1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 35 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVernudin2wins
AwayTkalich3wins
3 of 5 to a deciderTkalich leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVernudinn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayTkalich75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vernudin1Tkalich4n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
S2Vernudin3Tkalich2n = 5Vernudin took 3 of 5
S3Vernudin5Tkalich0n = 5Vernudin took 5 of 5
S4Vernudin3Tkalich1n = 4Vernudin took 3 of 4
S5Vernudin0Tkalich3n = 3Tkalich took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away360%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVernudinTkalichV − TBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match43.438.2+5.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVernudinTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 36 vs 114 / 25630.6%44.5%11 / 36 vs 114 / 256Avg sets wonper match1.61.8per matchAvg pointsper match34.636.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VernudinVernudin 1.91/Tkalich 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Vernudin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vernudin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 29 · 10:00K. Vernudin—91111113M. Tkalich—114951
LAug 22 · 11:20K. Vernudin—91112692M. Tkalich—1151011113
WAug 9 · 10:35K. Vernudin—1111113M. Tkalich—8460
LJul 25 · 09:30K. Vernudin—981111102M. Tkalich—111159123
LJul 12 · 10:40K. Vernudin—97111182M. Tkalich—111187113
K. Vernudin10
WSep 5 · 10:30M. Zaiats1.6711611972K. Vernudin2.10911711113LSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871WAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.50114951K. Vernudin2.5091111113LAug 29 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113K. Vernudin4.008990WAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko2.6312116692K. Vernudin1.441051111113LAug 29 · 04:30D. Kunchurov1.83111115113K. Vernudin1.83931771LAug 25 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331311113K. Vernudin3.2511980
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 29 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.50114951K. Vernudin2.5091111113
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