TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037769
Played Aug 29Finished
Stanislav Kuzko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1210115611611911
Kyryl Vernudin
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:35 and never touched — 60.8% is still 60.8%
Graded at full timeKyryl Vernudin to win
60.8%
60.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingStanislav Kuzko above · Kyryl Vernudin below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Kyryl Vernudin at 60.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Kuzko 1–2 Kyryl Vernudin Stanislav Kuzko has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:35What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vernudin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzko 756 vs Vernudin 929
Vernudin
Correct
both rated, 172 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzko 20% vs Vernudin 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzko 10% vs Vernudin 30%
Vernudin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzko -4 · Vernudin -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Vernudin) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vernudin form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzko 2.63 / Vernudin 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Vernudin)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13037769
Kuzko2.63
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog22% won 22 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Vernudin1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKuzko1wins
AwayVernudin2wins
2 of 3 to a deciderVernudin leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzko2Vernudin1n = 3Kuzko took 2 of 3
S2Kuzko2Vernudin1n = 3Kuzko took 2 of 3
S3Kuzko0Vernudin3n = 3Vernudin took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricKuzkoVernudinK − VBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.742.0−4.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzkoVernudinBasisWin rate · lifetime42 / 186 vs 11 / 3622.6%30.6%42 / 186 vs 11 / 36Avg sets wonper match1.31.6per matchAvg pointsper match33.234.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VernudinKuzko 2.63/Vernudin 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Vernudin · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vernudin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko—12116692K. Vernudin—1051111113
LAug 25 · 05:35S. Kuzko—8960K. Vernudin—1111113
WAug 18 · 10:40S. Kuzko—111428113K. Vernudin—912111122
S. Kuzko10
LSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102WSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113WSep 6 · 09:05M. Zaiats1.441191281S. Kuzko2.6391114113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko3.251111113M. Tkalich1.338940LAug 29 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0691111113S. Kuzko8.00113731LAug 29 · 07:30D. Kunchurov1.25119812113S. Kuzko3.75811111032LAug 29 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.20511511113S. Kuzko1.6111611592LAug 28 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.071111113S. Kuzko7.508340
K. Vernudin10
WSep 5 · 10:30M. Zaiats1.6711611972K. Vernudin2.10911711113LSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871WSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961WAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.50114951K. Vernudin2.5091111113LAug 29 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113K. Vernudin4.008990LAug 29 · 04:30D. Kunchurov1.83111115113K. Vernudin1.83931771LAug 25 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331311113K. Vernudin3.2511980
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