TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13038153
Played Aug 29Finished
Maksym Tkalich
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119411911511––
Kyryl Vernudin
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Kyryl Vernudin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 62.5%
71 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tkalich 3–2 Kyryl Vernudin Kyryl Vernudin has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 942 vs Vernudin 929
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 60% vs Vernudin 20%
Tkalich
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 50% vs Vernudin 30%
Tkalich
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich +3 · Vernudin -1
Tkalich
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Tkalich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vernudin form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 1.50 / Vernudin 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Tkalich)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13038153
Tkalich1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 33 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Vernudin2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog26% won 7 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeTkalich3wins
AwayVernudin2wins
3 of 5 to a deciderTkalich leads 3–2, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkalich75%3 of 4
AwayVernudinn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkalich4Vernudin1n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
S2Tkalich2Vernudin3n = 5Vernudin took 3 of 5
S3Tkalich0Vernudin5n = 5Vernudin took 5 of 5
S4Tkalich1Vernudin3n = 4Vernudin took 3 of 4
S5Tkalich3Vernudin0n = 3Tkalich took 3 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home360%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricTkalichVernudinT − VBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match38.243.4−5.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichVernudinBasisWin rate · lifetime120 / 261 vs 11 / 3646%30.6%120 / 261 vs 11 / 36Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match36.434.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTkalich 1.50/Vernudin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vernudin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 29 · 10:00M. Tkalich—114951K. Vernudin—91111113
WAug 22 · 11:20M. Tkalich—1151011113K. Vernudin—91112692
LAug 9 · 10:35M. Tkalich—8460K. Vernudin—1111113
WJul 25 · 09:30M. Tkalich—111159123K. Vernudin—981111102
WJul 12 · 10:40M. Tkalich—111187113K. Vernudin—97111182
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
K. Vernudin10
WSep 5 · 10:30M. Zaiats1.6711611972K. Vernudin2.10911711113LSep 5 · 09:30K. Vernudin4.337770V. Mykhalchenko1.201111113WSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871WSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961WAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113LAug 29 · 08:30V. Mykhalchenko1.221111113K. Vernudin4.008990WAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko2.6312116692K. Vernudin1.441051111113LAug 29 · 04:30D. Kunchurov1.83111115113K. Vernudin1.83931771LAug 25 · 11:05O. Miklukha1.331311113K. Vernudin3.2511980
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