TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084055
Played Sep 6Finished
Dmytro Kunchurov
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1189111012119118
Maksym Tkalich
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:54 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDmytro Kunchurov to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Kunchurov above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 100 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Kunchurov at 56.2%
100 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Kunchurov 19–18 Maksym Tkalich Maksym Tkalich has won 18 of their 37 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kunchurov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-18 in 37
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kunchurov 940 vs Tkalich 865
Kunchurov
Correct
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kunchurov 80% vs Tkalich 40%
Kunchurov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kunchurov 60% vs Tkalich 20%
Kunchurov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kunchurov +3 · Tkalich +1
Kunchurov
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Kunchurov)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKunchurov 1.67 / Tkalich 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Kunchurov)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084055
Kunchurov1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 35 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it83% 19 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it71% 24 of 34
Tkalich2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 33 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back17% 8 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKunchurov6wins
AwayTkalich4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKunchurov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKunchurov83.3%5 of 6
AwayTkalich75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kunchurov6Tkalich4n = 10Kunchurov took 6 of 10
S2Kunchurov5Tkalich5n = 10split evenly
S3Kunchurov7Tkalich3n = 10Kunchurov took 7 of 10
S4Kunchurov4Tkalich4n = 8split evenly
S5Kunchurov2Tkalich3n = 5Tkalich took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKunchurovTkalichK − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.137.4+4.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKunchurovTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime80 / 206 vs 114 / 26038.8%43.9%80 / 206 vs 114 / 260Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.736.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KunchurovKunchurov 1.67/Tkalich 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Kunchurov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov—1191011113M. Tkalich—81112982
WSep 5 · 10:00D. Kunchurov—1111113M. Tkalich—3150
LAug 29 · 06:00D. Kunchurov—11311892M. Tkalich—911511113
WAug 23 · 19:00D. Kunchurov—11116113M. Tkalich—941191
LAug 22 · 06:20D. Kunchurov—811117152M. Tkalich—116611173
WAug 15 · 09:30D. Kunchurov—13711113M. Tkalich—1111561
LJul 19 · 10:35D. Kunchurov—61111872M. Tkalich—119711113
WJul 12 · 16:10D. Kunchurov—11511123M. Tkalich—3115101
LJun 15 · 11:30D. Kunchurov—7690M. Tkalich—1111113
WJun 13 · 11:30D. Kunchurov—12111112113M. Tkalich—14351462
D. Kunchurov10
LSep 6 · 11:05D. Kunchurov1.7311911111M. Zaiats2.0091113133WSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113LSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 06:30V. Mykhalchenko1.1411116672D. Kunchurov5.00791111113LAug 29 · 10:30D. Kunchurov4.5071170V. Mykhalchenko1.171113113LAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
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