TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13084308
Played Sep 6Finished
Maksym Tkalich
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
611511115117811
Stanislav Kuzko
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Stanislav Kuzko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 86 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 68.5%
86 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tkalich 15–8 Stanislav Kuzko Stanislav Kuzko has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Tkalich
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 882 vs Kuzko 748
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 20% vs Kuzko 40%
Kuzko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 20% vs Kuzko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich -2 · Kuzko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 1.40 / Kuzko 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Tkalich)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13084308
Tkalich1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 36 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Kuzko2.75
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 20 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back12% 7 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkalich7wins
AwayKuzko3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkalich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkalich62.5%5 of 8
AwayKuzkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkalich8Kuzko2n = 10Tkalich took 8 of 10
S2Tkalich5Kuzko5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkalich3Kuzko7n = 10Kuzko took 7 of 10
S4Tkalich4Kuzko4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkalich4Kuzko0n = 4Tkalich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkalichKuzkoT − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.241.9+1.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichKuzkoBasisWin rate · lifetime113 / 259 vs 42 / 17943.6%23.5%113 / 259 vs 42 / 179Avg sets wonper match1.81.3per matchAvg pointsper match35.933.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTkalich 1.40/Kuzko 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.3%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kuzko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 15 · 06:30M. Tkalich—911311183S. Kuzko—117116162
WJun 6 · 05:30M. Tkalich—1112113S. Kuzko—81090
WMay 17 · 08:00M. Tkalich—681311113S. Kuzko—111111892
WMay 16 · 11:30M. Tkalich—151174113S. Kuzko—134111182
WMay 10 · 10:35M. Tkalich—1111113S. Kuzko—9960
LMay 3 · 12:10M. Tkalich—138991S. Kuzko—111111113
LApr 11 · 08:30M. Tkalich—11910131S. Kuzko—71112153
WApr 4 · 06:00M. Tkalich—14119113S. Kuzko—1271191
LMar 29 · 07:05M. Tkalich—1141191S. Kuzko—71113113
WMar 21 · 10:00M. Tkalich—139911123S. Kuzko—1111117102
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
S. Kuzko10
LSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102WSep 6 · 09:05M. Zaiats1.441191281S. Kuzko2.6391114113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko3.251111113M. Tkalich1.338940LAug 29 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0691111113S. Kuzko8.00113731LAug 29 · 07:30D. Kunchurov1.25119812113S. Kuzko3.75811111032LAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko2.6312116692K. Vernudin1.441051111113LAug 29 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.20511511113S. Kuzko1.6111611592LAug 28 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.071111113S. Kuzko7.508340
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