TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037728
Played Aug 29Finished
Stanislav Kuzko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119114––––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:57 and never touched — 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingStanislav Kuzko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 54 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 67.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Stanislav Kuzko 8–15 Maksym Tkalich Stanislav Kuzko has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Tkalich
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Tkalich
Wrong
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kuzko 731 vs Tkalich 965
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 234 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kuzko 0% vs Tkalich 60%
Tkalich
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kuzko 10% vs Tkalich 40%
Tkalich
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kuzko -5 · Tkalich -1
Kuzko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKuzko 3.25 / Tkalich 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Tkalich)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13037728
Kuzko3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog22% won 21 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Tkalich1.33
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 33 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKuzko3wins
AwayTkalich7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkalich leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKuzkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayTkalich62.5%5 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kuzko2Tkalich8n = 10Tkalich took 8 of 10
S2Kuzko5Tkalich5n = 10split evenly
S3Kuzko7Tkalich3n = 10Kuzko took 7 of 10
S4Kuzko4Tkalich4n = 8split evenly
S5Kuzko0Tkalich4n = 4Tkalich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKuzkoTkalichK − TBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.943.2−1.3per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKuzkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime41 / 185 vs 120 / 26022.2%46.2%41 / 185 vs 120 / 260Avg sets wonper match1.31.9per matchAvg pointsper match33.236.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichKuzko 3.25/Tkalich 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kuzko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 06:30S. Kuzko—117116162M. Tkalich—911311183
LJun 6 · 05:30S. Kuzko—81090M. Tkalich—1112113
LMay 17 · 08:00S. Kuzko—111111892M. Tkalich—681311113
LMay 16 · 11:30S. Kuzko—134111182M. Tkalich—151174113
LMay 10 · 10:35S. Kuzko—9960M. Tkalich—1111113
WMay 3 · 12:10S. Kuzko—111111113M. Tkalich—138991
WApr 11 · 08:30S. Kuzko—71112153M. Tkalich—11910131
LApr 4 · 06:00S. Kuzko—1271191M. Tkalich—14119113
WMar 29 · 07:05S. Kuzko—71113113M. Tkalich—1141191
LMar 21 · 10:00S. Kuzko—1111117102M. Tkalich—139911123
S. Kuzko10
LSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102WSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113WSep 6 · 09:05M. Zaiats1.441191281S. Kuzko2.6391114113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162LAug 29 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0691111113S. Kuzko8.00113731LAug 29 · 07:30D. Kunchurov1.25119812113S. Kuzko3.75811111032LAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko2.6312116692K. Vernudin1.441051111113LAug 29 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.20511511113S. Kuzko1.6111611592LAug 28 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.071111113S. Kuzko7.508340
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
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