TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037650
Played Aug 29Finished
Mykhailo Mykhailenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511116511115119
Stanislav Kuzko
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:31 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeStanislav Kuzko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Stanislav Kuzko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 85 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Stanislav Kuzko at 58.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 3–7 Stanislav Kuzko Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:31What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Kuzko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Kuzko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 767 vs Kuzko 769
Kuzko
Wrong
both rated, 2 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 20% vs Kuzko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 40% vs Kuzko 10%
Mykhailenko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -2 · Kuzko -3
Kuzko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kuzko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kuzko form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 2.20 / Kuzko 1.61
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kuzko)-3.7pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13037650
Mykhailenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 16 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Kuzko1.61
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite50% won 6 of 12
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailenko3wins
AwayKuzko7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKuzko leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayKuzko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko3Kuzko7n = 10Kuzko took 7 of 10
S2Mykhailenko4Kuzko6n = 10Kuzko took 6 of 10
S3Mykhailenko5Kuzko5n = 10split evenly
S4Mykhailenko3Kuzko4n = 7Kuzko took 4 of 7
S5Mykhailenko2Kuzko3n = 5Kuzko took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoKuzkoM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.341.2−4.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoKuzkoBasisWin rate · lifetime18 / 78 vs 41 / 18123.1%22.7%18 / 78 vs 41 / 181Avg sets wonper match1.21.3per matchAvg pointsper match30.933.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KuzkoMykhailenko 2.20/Kuzko 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kuzko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mykhailenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 15:30M. Mykhailenko—11111011113S. Kuzko—86121362
LAug 18 · 15:10M. Mykhailenko—116115102S. Kuzko—911511123
LAug 15 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—612861S. Kuzko—111011113
LJun 4 · 11:10M. Mykhailenko—35111152S. Kuzko—111196113
LMay 10 · 12:05M. Mykhailenko—6380S. Kuzko—1111113
LApr 16 · 08:35M. Mykhailenko—69111192S. Kuzko—111175113
WApr 11 · 07:00M. Mykhailenko—1111113S. Kuzko—8470
WMar 29 · 10:05M. Mykhailenko—922111123S. Kuzko—1111196102
LFeb 14 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—2950S. Kuzko—1111113
LFeb 1 · 09:35M. Mykhailenko—911751S. Kuzko—11811113
M. Mykhailenko10
LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Zaiats1.361171111112M. Mykhailenko3.00811213133LSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871LSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113LAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7571250M. Tkalich1.251114113LAug 29 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.061111113M. Mykhailenko8.007770LAug 28 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.2511881162D. Kunchurov1.57711112113
S. Kuzko10
LSep 6 · 11:35V. Mykhalchenko1.061011117123S. Kuzko8.00128911102WSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113WSep 6 · 09:05M. Zaiats1.441191281S. Kuzko2.6391114113LSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WAug 29 · 11:30S. Kuzko3.251111113M. Tkalich1.338940LAug 29 · 09:30V. Mykhalchenko1.0691111113S. Kuzko8.00113731LAug 29 · 07:30D. Kunchurov1.25119812113S. Kuzko3.75811111032LAug 29 · 06:30S. Kuzko2.6312116692K. Vernudin1.441051111113LAug 28 · 19:00V. Mykhalchenko1.071111113S. Kuzko7.508340
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