TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037819
Played Aug 29Finished
Mykhailo Mykhailenko
Home
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111214511––––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:36 and never touched — 82.9% is still 82.9%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
82.9%
82.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 82.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 2–10 Maksym Tkalich Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:36What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Tkalich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Tkalich
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 779 vs Tkalich 942
Tkalich
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 40% vs Tkalich 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 40% vs Tkalich 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -1 · Tkalich +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 81% — Strong (leans Tkalich) · live re-read · sealed at 83% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (40%) is below what odds imply (80%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 3.75 / Tkalich 1.25
Signal prob.19% / 81%
Edge (Tkalich)+6.3pp
Setka Cup · #13037819
Mykhailenko3.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 16 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back11% 5 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Tkalich1.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 33 of 60
Up 2–0, closes it91% 21 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailenko2wins
AwayTkalich8wins
Tkalich leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkalich100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S2Mykhailenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S3Mykhailenko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S4Mykhailenko0Tkalich4n = 4Tkalich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.634.8−7.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 83 vs 120 / 26124.1%46%20 / 83 vs 120 / 261Avg sets wonper match1.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match30.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichMykhailenko 3.75/Tkalich 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.3%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tkalich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—71250M. Tkalich—1114113
WAug 23 · 17:00M. Mykhailenko—1111123M. Tkalich—86100
LAug 15 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko—6711141M. Tkalich—11116163
LJul 19 · 11:35M. Mykhailenko—5870M. Tkalich—1111113
LJul 12 · 14:40M. Mykhailenko—6490M. Tkalich—1111113
WMay 10 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko—1111113M. Tkalich—8880
LMay 2 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—571181M. Tkalich—11119113
LApr 25 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—113791M. Tkalich—61111113
LApr 11 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—411631M. Tkalich—11711113
LMar 29 · 09:05M. Mykhailenko—8870M. Tkalich—1111113
M. Mykhailenko10
LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Zaiats1.361171111112M. Mykhailenko3.00811213133LSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871LSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113LAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133LAug 29 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.061111113M. Mykhailenko8.007770WAug 29 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.20511511113S. Kuzko1.6111611592LAug 28 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.2511881162D. Kunchurov1.57711112113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
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