TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078981
Played Sep 5Finished
Maksym Tkalich
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311111511––––
Dmytro Kunchurov
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Dmytro Kunchurov below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 42 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 54.0%
42 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tkalich 18–17 Dmytro Kunchurov Dmytro Kunchurov has won 17 of their 35 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:49What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kunchurov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-17 in 35
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 911 vs Kunchurov 883
Tkalich
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 20% vs Kunchurov 40%
Kunchurov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 20% vs Kunchurov 50%
Kunchurov
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich +1 · Kunchurov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Tkalich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kunchurov form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 1.83 / Kunchurov 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Tkalich)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13078981
Tkalich1.83
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kunchurov1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkalich5wins
AwayKunchurov5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkalich75%3 of 4
AwayKunchurov66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkalich4Kunchurov6n = 10Kunchurov took 6 of 10
S2Tkalich5Kunchurov5n = 10split evenly
S3Tkalich3Kunchurov7n = 10Kunchurov took 7 of 10
S4Tkalich4Kunchurov4n = 8split evenly
S5Tkalich4Kunchurov1n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkalichKunchurovT − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.2−3.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichKunchurovBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 258 vs 74 / 19944.6%37.2%115 / 258 vs 74 / 199Avg sets wonper match1.81.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.135.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTkalich 1.83/Kunchurov 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kunchurov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 06:00M. Tkalich—911511113D. Kunchurov—11311892
LAug 23 · 19:00M. Tkalich—941191D. Kunchurov—11116113
WAug 22 · 06:20M. Tkalich—116611173D. Kunchurov—811117152
LAug 15 · 09:30M. Tkalich—1111561D. Kunchurov—13711113
WJul 19 · 10:35M. Tkalich—119711113D. Kunchurov—61111872
LJul 12 · 16:10M. Tkalich—3115101D. Kunchurov—11511123
WJun 15 · 11:30M. Tkalich—1111113D. Kunchurov—7690
LJun 13 · 11:30M. Tkalich—14351462D. Kunchurov—12111112113
WJun 6 · 08:00M. Tkalich—511118113D. Kunchurov—11591172
LMay 24 · 10:35M. Tkalich—4740D. Kunchurov—1111113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113LAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562
D. Kunchurov10
LSep 6 · 11:05D. Kunchurov1.7311911111M. Zaiats2.0091113133WSep 6 · 09:35D. Kunchurov4.3311119113V. Mykhalchenko1.20661191WSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:05D. Kunchurov1.28111359113S. Kuzko3.50311111162WSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113LSep 5 · 08:30K. Vernudin1.83111197123D. Kunchurov1.83891111102WSep 5 · 06:30V. Mykhalchenko1.1411116672D. Kunchurov5.00791111113LAug 29 · 10:30D. Kunchurov4.5071170V. Mykhalchenko1.171113113LAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133
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