TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13078834
Played Sep 5Finished
Mykhailo Mykhailenko
Home
5.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119611511––
Maksym Tkalich
Away
1.14
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 85.7% is still 85.7%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
85.7%
85.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykhailo Mykhailenko above · Maksym Tkalich below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 71 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 85.7%
71 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Mykhailenko 2–10 Maksym Tkalich Mykhailo Mykhailenko has won 2 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:19What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.14 (81%)
Tkalich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-10 in 12
Tkalich
Correct
gap of 8 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mykhailenko 768 vs Tkalich 903
Tkalich
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mykhailenko 20% vs Tkalich 0%
Mykhailenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mykhailenko 30% vs Tkalich 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mykhailenko -3 · Tkalich -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Tkalich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tkalich form (0%) is below what odds imply (88%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMykhailenko 5.00 / Tkalich 1.14
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Tkalich)+4.3pp
Setka Cup · #13078834
Mykhailenko5.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 18 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back12% 6 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 37
Tkalich1.14
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 35 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMykhailenko2wins
AwayTkalich8wins
Tkalich leads 8–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMykhailenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayTkalich100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mykhailenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S2Mykhailenko3Tkalich7n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S3Mykhailenko4Tkalich6n = 10Tkalich took 6 of 10
S4Mykhailenko0Tkalich4n = 4Tkalich took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichM − TBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match27.634.8−7.2per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMykhailenkoTkalichBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 85 vs 114 / 25723.5%44.4%20 / 85 vs 114 / 257Avg sets wonper match1.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match30.836.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichMykhailenko 5.00/Tkalich 1.14
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
85.7%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Tkalich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—71250M. Tkalich—1114113
WAug 23 · 17:00M. Mykhailenko—1111123M. Tkalich—86100
LAug 15 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko—6711141M. Tkalich—11116163
LJul 19 · 11:35M. Mykhailenko—5870M. Tkalich—1111113
LJul 12 · 14:40M. Mykhailenko—6490M. Tkalich—1111113
WMay 10 · 07:05M. Mykhailenko—1111113M. Tkalich—8880
LMay 2 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko—571181M. Tkalich—11119113
LApr 25 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—113791M. Tkalich—61111113
LApr 11 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko—411631M. Tkalich—11711113
LMar 29 · 09:05M. Mykhailenko—8870M. Tkalich—1111113
M. Mykhailenko10
LSep 5 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.1011811992D. Kunchurov1.67911711113WSep 5 · 09:00M. Zaiats1.361171111112M. Mykhailenko3.00811213133LSep 5 · 07:00K. Vernudin1.22101111113M. Mykhailenko4.00127871LSep 5 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko9.00771181V. Mykhalchenko1.0411117113LAug 29 · 11:00M. Mykhailenko2.503980K. Vernudin1.501111113WAug 29 · 09:00D. Kunchurov1.5075110M. Mykhailenko2.501111133LAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7571250M. Tkalich1.251114113LAug 29 · 07:00V. Mykhalchenko1.061111113M. Mykhailenko8.007770WAug 29 · 05:30M. Mykhailenko2.20511511113S. Kuzko1.6111611592LAug 28 · 18:30M. Mykhailenko2.2511881162D. Kunchurov1.57711112113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113WAug 29 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko3.7571250M. Tkalich1.251114113
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