TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12435830
Played Aug 15Finished
Maksym Tkalich
Home
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115118118––––
Kostiantyn Tsoi
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:50 and never touched — 73.3% is still 73.3%
Graded at full timeMaksym Tkalich to win
73.3%
73.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaksym Tkalich above · Kostiantyn Tsoi below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Maksym Tkalich at 73.3%
54 points played in total.
H2H Maksym Tkalich 24–14 Kostiantyn Tsoi Kostiantyn Tsoi has won 14 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Tkalich
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-14 in 38
Tkalich
Correct
gap of 10 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tkalich 990 vs Tsoi 912
Tkalich
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tkalich 60% vs Tsoi 80%
Tsoi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tkalich 50% vs Tsoi 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tkalich -2 · Tsoi +3
Tsoi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Tkalich)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tsoi form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTkalich 1.30 / Tsoi 3.40
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Tkalich)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12435830
Tkalich1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 28 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it67% 22 of 33
Tsoi3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog9% won 2 of 22
Down 0–1, comes back0% 0 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTkalich9wins
AwayTsoi1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderTkalich leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTkalich85.7%6 of 7
AwayTsoi0%0 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tkalich7Tsoi3n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S2Tkalich8Tsoi2n = 10Tkalich took 8 of 10
S3Tkalich7Tsoi3n = 10Tkalich took 7 of 10
S4Tkalich4Tsoi1n = 5Tkalich took 4 of 5
S5Tkalich3Tsoi1n = 4Tkalich took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTkalichTsoiTkalich − TsoiBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.833.7+6.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTkalichTsoiBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 255 vs 37 / 11645.9%31.9%117 / 255 vs 37 / 116Avg sets wonper match1.91.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.633.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TkalichTkalich 1.30/Tsoi 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Tkalich · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tkalich won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 9 · 15:30M. Tkalich—11136113K. Tsoi—6111181
WApr 18 · 05:05M. Tkalich—1111113K. Tsoi—7860
WApr 11 · 06:30M. Tkalich—411911153K. Tsoi—116117132
WMar 29 · 11:35M. Tkalich—1112133K. Tsoi—910110
WMar 21 · 08:30M. Tkalich—1111113K. Tsoi—4880
WFeb 1 · 09:05M. Tkalich—311117113K. Tsoi—115511102
WJan 18 · 09:05M. Tkalich—671111123K. Tsoi—111156102
WJan 3 · 07:30M. Tkalich—1511113K. Tsoi—13720
WDec 27 · 08:00M. Tkalich—1114113K. Tsoi—91250
LOct 11 · 09:00M. Tkalich—11571182K. Tsoi—711119113
M. Tkalich10
WSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113LSep 6 · 10:35M. Tkalich1.4065111182S. Kuzko2.75111157113LSep 6 · 08:35V. Mykhalchenko1.361351611113M. Tkalich3.00111118782LSep 6 · 06:35D. Kunchurov1.671191011113M. Tkalich2.1081112982WSep 6 · 05:35M. Zaiats1.678750M. Tkalich2.101111113LSep 5 · 11:30V. Mykhalchenko1.4461111113M. Tkalich2.63115551LSep 5 · 10:00M. Tkalich1.833150D. Kunchurov1.831111113WSep 5 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00711651M. Tkalich1.1411911113LSep 5 · 05:00K. Vernudin1.9171111113M. Tkalich1.80116961LAug 30 · 12:05M. Tkalich3.402370S. Semenets1.301111113
K. Tsoi10
LSep 6 · 12:05K. Tsoi3.501110871M. Tkalich1.2861211113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Zaiats1.80411841K. Tsoi1.9111411113LSep 6 · 08:05D. Kunchurov1.801111113K. Tsoi1.916550WSep 6 · 07:05K. Tsoi1.281211113S. Kuzko3.5010090LSep 6 · 06:05V. Mykhalchenko1.141111113K. Tsoi5.003580WAug 15 · 10:00K. Tsoi1.301112113S. Kuzko3.4081070WAug 15 · 08:00M. Mykhailenko5.00111141192K. Tsoi1.14135119113WAug 15 · 06:00O. Ponomarenko1.307117111K. Tsoi3.4011811133LAug 15 · 05:00D. Kunchurov1.801112113K. Tsoi1.9141070WJun 20 · 10:30M. Mykhailenko4.336780K. Tsoi1.201111113
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