TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13037716
Played Aug 29Finished
Denys Khavanskyi
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119511811117
Oleh Ponomarenko
Away
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:58 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDenys Khavanskyi to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Khavanskyi above · Oleh Ponomarenko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Denys Khavanskyi at 62.1%
91 points played in total.
H2H Denys Khavanskyi 7–4 Oleh Ponomarenko Oleh Ponomarenko has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:58What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Khavanskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Khavanskyi
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khavanskyi 1237 vs Ponomarenko 1072
Khavanskyi
Correct
both rated, 165 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khavanskyi 60% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Khavanskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khavanskyi 70% vs Ponomarenko 20%
Khavanskyi
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Khavanskyi -1 · Ponomarenko -4
Ponomarenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Khavanskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ponomarenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhavanskyi 1.33 / Ponomarenko 3.25
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Khavanskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13037716
Khavanskyi1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite34% won 12 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Ponomarenko3.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 49 of 147
Down 0–1, comes back17% 14 of 83
Down 0–2, comes back9% 5 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhavanskyi7wins
AwayPonomarenko3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKhavanskyi leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhavanskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayPonomarenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khavanskyi6Ponomarenko4n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S2Khavanskyi3Ponomarenko7n = 10Ponomarenko took 7 of 10
S3Khavanskyi6Ponomarenko4n = 10Khavanskyi took 6 of 10
S4Khavanskyi5Ponomarenko4n = 9Khavanskyi took 5 of 9
S5Khavanskyi4Ponomarenko1n = 5Khavanskyi took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhavanskyiPonomarenkoK − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.341.6+1.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhavanskyiPonomarenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime151 / 294 vs 306 / 65451.4%46.8%151 / 294 vs 306 / 654Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.835.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhavanskyiKhavanskyi 1.33/Ponomarenko 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.1%
Khavanskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Khavanskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 06:30D. Khavanskyi—121188123O. Ponomarenko—1071111102
WAug 25 · 11:35D. Khavanskyi—144138123O. Ponomarenko—12111111102
WSep 5 · 09:50D. Khavanskyi—11811113O. Ponomarenko—811851
WJul 29 · 15:40D. Khavanskyi—91311113O. Ponomarenko—1111941
LJul 22 · 17:10D. Khavanskyi—6960O. Ponomarenko—1111113
WJul 13 · 14:40D. Khavanskyi—671111103O. Ponomarenko—11115382
WMay 14 · 04:30D. Khavanskyi—1261110143O. Ponomarenko—1011512122
WMay 12 · 04:30D. Khavanskyi—11611113O. Ponomarenko—611471
LMay 7 · 06:30D. Khavanskyi—11109141O. Ponomarenko—61211163
LMay 5 · 07:00D. Khavanskyi—101151262O. Ponomarenko—1271110113
D. Khavanskyi10
LSep 4 · 18:30S. Yakimenko1.671111113D. Khavanskyi2.105780LSep 4 · 17:30M. Khalenko2.1091111113D. Khavanskyi1.67116931WSep 4 · 16:00Y. Korotin2.253980D. Khavanskyi1.571111113LSep 4 · 14:00S. Semenets2.259111111113D. Khavanskyi1.5711135882LSep 4 · 12:00V. Mukhin1.9151111113D. Khavanskyi1.80117591LSep 3 · 11:05D. Khavanskyi2.00871141V. Korniichuk1.7311114113WSep 3 · 09:35D. Khavanskyi1.611111113V. Stukalov2.206740LSep 3 · 08:05D. Khavanskyi1.25126531S. Osipov3.75101111113WSep 3 · 06:35D. Khavanskyi1.671111113S. Semenets2.109980LSep 3 · 05:05D. Khavanskyi1.446260M. Khalenko2.631111113
O. Ponomarenko10
LAug 30 · 11:05V. Mukhin1.221112113O. Ponomarenko4.0011050WAug 30 · 10:05O. Ponomarenko1.50591111113M. Tkalich2.5011114562LAug 30 · 09:05O. Ponomarenko2.758370D. Khavanskyi1.401111113LAug 30 · 07:35O. Ponomarenko1.919490S. Osipov1.801111113LAug 30 · 05:35O. Ponomarenko2.6310330S. Semenets1.441211113WAug 29 · 12:20V. Stukalov1.441111116102O. Ponomarenko2.63913611123LAug 29 · 09:50O. Stopin1.281111113O. Ponomarenko3.506830LAug 29 · 07:50S. Semenets1.408101111113O. Ponomarenko2.7511122882LAug 29 · 05:50V. Mukhin1.306111110113O. Ponomarenko3.4011741212LAug 26 · 11:30O. Ponomarenko2.385550S. Semenets1.531111113
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